is neilkaz score: 8 pip: 92

11 point match

pip: 229 score: 5 is mochy

XGID=----A-D-----bB-B-bbbbabbEA:0:0:1:54:5:8:0:11:10

to play 54

1.	Rollout1	Bar/21* 21/16	eq: -1.257
	Player: Opponent: 25.04% (G:1.20% B:0.06%) 74.96% (G:56.01% B:14.28%) Conf: ± 0.010 (-1.267...-1.247) Duration: 5 minutes 16 seconds
* 2.	Rollout2	Bar/21* 15/10	eq: -1.382 (-0.126)
	Player: Opponent: 22.98% (G:1.65% B:0.09%) 77.02% (G:59.15% B:18.75%) Conf: ± 0.010 (-1.392...-1.372) Duration: 4 minutes 32 seconds
3.	3 ply	Bar/21* 13/8	eq: -1.327 (-0.071)
	Player: Opponent: 26.02% (G:1.28% B:0.04%) 73.98% (G:60.62% B:22.31%)
4.	2 ply	Bar/21* 6/1	eq: -1.486 (-0.230)
	Player: Opponent: 19.62% (G:0.87% B:0.01%) 80.38% (G:62.67% B:17.51%)
1 Truncated at 11 moves using 4 ply. 1626 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 1342 Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply 2 Truncated at 11 moves using 4 ply. 1773 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 1342 Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

My plan is not appreciated by bot... Is it too risky? (more backgammon yes , but why less winning chance?)
Correction: ...(I understand I lose more backgammons but why do I also win less?