1st WSOB HEADS-UP CHAMPIONSHIP - post match quote ANALYZED

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1st position
1st match. Black(Jurgen) is leading 7-0/11p and on roll. Cube action?

is orlowski_go_vegan score: 7 pip: 117

11 point match

pip: 158 score: 0 is bgmochy2

XGID=a---BAD-BA--bB----bebc-BA-:0:0:-1:00:0:7:0:11:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances:	66.24% (G: 34.19% B: 3.48%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	33.76% (G: 5.80% B: 0.25%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	66.29% (G: 35.39% B: 3.64%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	33.71% (G: 5.80% B: 0.25%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:	+0.726
Double:	+1.285
Cubeful Equities
No Double:	+0.713
*Double/Take:	+0.503 (-0.210)
Double/Drop:	+1.000 (+0.287)
Best Cube action: No Double / Take
Rollout details
650 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 44 Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double:	± 0.018 (+0.695...+0.731)
Confidence Double:	± 0.028 (+0.475...+0.531)
Double Decision confidence:	100.0%
Take Decision confidence:	100.0%
Duration: 6 minutes 21 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

[Thanks to Bob Wachtel who kindly edited this 1st position analysis]

When you are trailing by this much in a match, you only need to see a few realistic paths to victory to be able to take the cube.
In this case, Black (Jurgen) might dance or roll 26 or 24 from the bar. If that happens, I would have about a 40% chance to win the game, and would very close to a redouble already (it may already be one). In fact, redoubling would have another benefit: while magnifying the effect of my own gammons, it would exactly nullify the value of Jurgen's gammons! Even though the odds of my gammoning Jurgen from this position are small, the payoff is huge: and it is this outcome, rather than the negative one of my being gammoned, upon which I should focus.
Even if worst comes to worst - say he hits and I dance - I will still have a well-timed deuce-point game.
Actually Jurgen doubled too early. He would have had a good cube after a hit-and-poor-entering sequence.

2nd position
Later in the same game, White(Mochy) holding a cube on two. Cube action?

is orlowski_go_vegan score: 7 pip: 130

11 point match

pip: 167 score: 0 is bgmochy2

XGID=a--aBAC-BA--bB---AbdbbABa-:1:1:1:00:0:7:0:11:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances:	55.15% (G: 18.53% B: 0.81%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	44.85% (G: 19.59% B: 1.58%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	55.66% (G: 20.05% B: 1.03%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	44.34% (G: 20.50% B: 1.99%)
Cubeless Equities
No Redouble:	+0.176
Redouble:	+1.188
Cubeful Equities
No Redouble:	+0.910 (-0.090)
*Redouble/Take:	+1.188 (+0.188)
Redouble/Drop:	+1.000
Best Cube action: Redouble / Drop
Rollout details
327 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 9584 Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Redouble:	± 0.015 (+0.895...+0.925)
Confidence Redouble:	± 0.022 (+1.166...+1.211)
Double Decision confidence:	100.0%
Take Decision confidence:	100.0%
Duration: 4 minutes 02 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

Black's raw take point is about 30% and my gammon price is almost 1. That means this situation is similar to 2away - 4away cube action except take point is 10% higher.
I am not sure whether take or not for 2away - 4away so it is a huge pass at this score.

3rd position
2nd match. Jurgen (Black) is on roll. Match is tied at 2-2/11p. Cube action?

is orlowski_go_vegan score: 2 pip: 15

11 point match

pip: 45 score: 2 is bgmochy2

XGID=-B-BB-B----------A-----am-:1:-1:-1:00:2:2:0:11:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances:	80.53% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	19.47% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	81.68% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	18.32% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
Cubeless Equities
No Redouble:	+0.599
Redouble:	+1.316
Cubeful Equities
No Redouble:	+0.885 (-0.115)
*Redouble/Take:	+1.217 (+0.217)
Redouble/Drop:	+1.000
Best Cube action: Redouble / Drop
Rollout details
2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 9584 Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Redouble:	± 0.002 (+0.883...+0.887)
Confidence Redouble:	± 0.004 (+1.213...+1.221)
Double Decision confidence:	100.0%
Take Decision confidence:	100.0%
Duration: 1.5 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

I calculated my wastege as 9 pips but infact it is 10.5 pips and this 1.5 pips leads me making horrible mistake here.(1pip compenasate about 3% in this length of the race.) I need to re-study about wastege.

4th potision.
3rd match. Jurgen (Black) is trailing 6-8/11p and on roll but he is on the bar. Cube action?

is orlowski_go_vegan score: 6 pip: 153

11 point match

pip: 58 score: 8 is bgmochy2

XGID=aDbEbAC-B----------bbbbb--:0:0:-1:00:8:6:0:11:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances:	65.99% (G: 13.86% B: 0.57%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	34.01% (G: 18.50% B: 1.50%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	66.78% (G: 17.48% B: 0.78%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	33.22% (G: 18.78% B: 4.41%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:	+0.202
Double:	+0.698
Cubeful Equities
No Double:	+0.457 (-0.218)
*Double/Take:	+0.675
Double/Drop:	+1.000 (+0.325)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
854 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 44 Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double:	± 0.016 (+0.441...+0.472)
Confidence Double:	± 0.032 (+0.643...+0.706)
Double Decision confidence:	100.0%
Take Decision confidence:	100.0%
Duration: 17 minutes 22 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

Black will miss with 17 numbers including 9 dances and anti-joker 44.

SORRY THIS POST IS NOT FINISHED YET. I WILL WRITE IT AGAIN SOON>