Position from 1st WSOB HEADS-UP CHAMPIONSHIP - 07

Match 2 Game 7

I don't understand why the best play is the best. I hope somebody help me.

is orlowski_go_vegan score: 6 pip: 145

11 point match

pip: 152 score: 8 is bgmochy2

XGID=-a-aB-D-C---bD-a-cbd--B-a-:0:0:1:62:8:6:0:11:10

to play 62

1.	Rollout1	22/16 13/11	eq: +0.026
	Player: Opponent: 54.20% (G:16.17% B:1.26%) 45.80% (G:15.84% B:0.62%) Conf: ± 0.010 (+0.016...+0.036) Duration: 6 minutes 05 seconds
2.	Rollout2	13/5	eq: +0.002 (-0.024)
	Player: Opponent: 51.37% (G:15.88% B:0.81%) 48.63% (G:11.92% B:0.44%) Conf: ± 0.010 (-0.008...+0.012) Duration: 6 minutes 04 seconds
* 3.	Rollout3	22/14	eq: -0.027 (-0.053)
	Player: Opponent: 53.22% (G:14.54% B:0.98%) 46.78% (G:15.96% B:0.42%) Conf: ± 0.014 (-0.041...-0.013) Duration: 3 minutes 54 seconds
1 Truncated at 11 moves using 3 ply. 528 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 9584 Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply 2 Truncated at 11 moves using 3 ply. 527 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 9584 Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply 3 Truncated at 11 moves using 3 ply. 326 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 9584 Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

If a white checker on 10 point is not exist, I will definitely play 13/11 as it produces a nice builder linked with 16p and 13p. Because of that checker, I was worried about being hit by ace and played 16/14, but how painful that ace shot can be? Yes, it can be painful with 11, 14, and 16 but not with 12, 13 and 15. You will actually gain by staying on 16p if white rolls 12 or 13. So ace shot is not really painful and the merit of 13/11 stands.
 
Falafel told me 13/11 is "free shot" so I checked with XG. I compared two positions. First one is running to 14, the other one is stopped at 16 but not playing other deuce(illegal play). An equity after each play was about same. I wouldn't gain or lose by playing 16/14 with deuce. It helps me understanding position a lot better. 13/11 is acutally a free shot.


These positions are taken from 1st WSOB HEADS-UP CHAMPIONSHIP - Mochy vs Jurgen Orlowski.
You can download the match from  URL below.

1st match Jurgen beats Mochy (PR Mochy 3.7 - Jurgen 4.0)
http://dl.dropbox.com/u/3098363/orlowski_go_vegan%20-%20bgmochy2%2017047782.mat

2nd match Mochy beats Jurgen (PR Mochy 2.8 - Jurgen 2.7)
http://dl.dropbox.com/u/3098363/bgmochy2%20-%20orlowski_go_vegan%2017049279.mat