Position from 1st WSOB HEADS-UP CHAMPIONSHIP - 09

is orlowski_go_vegan score: 0 pip: 84

11 point match

pip: 73 score: 0 is bgmochy2

XGID=--bCCDCB------------cbbcc-:1:-1:1:31:0:0:0:11:10

to play 31

1.	Rollout1	7/6 7/4	eq: +0.839
	Player: Opponent: 90.62% (G:5.20% B:0.10%) 9.38% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf: ± 0.003 (+0.836...+0.842) Duration: 41.9 seconds
* 2.	Rollout2	5/1	eq: +0.817 (-0.021)
	Player: Opponent: 89.68% (G:5.57% B:0.08%) 10.32% (G:0.15% B:0.00%) Conf: ± 0.004 (+0.813...+0.821) Duration: 44.5 seconds
1 Truncated at 11 moves using 3 ply. 650 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 9584 Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply 2 Truncated at 11 moves using 3 ply. 649 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 9584 Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

This is a tiny error but I can't overlook this mistake because it may arise very frequently.
My rule of thumb here is "When your opponent has a five point board or stronger, play safe (clear from the back). When your opponent has a four point board or weaker, keep contact (keep your prime)"

The reason of this rule is pretty simple. When your opponent has a five point board or bigger, you are usually comfortablly up in the race and being hit is fatal, so you should play safe by clearing from the back.
On the other hand , when your opponent has a four point board or weaker, the race is closer and being hit isn't fatal anymore so that you want to keep contact and force him crunch more.

is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 77

11 point match

pip: 73 score: 0 is Player 1

XGID=--bCCDCB-------------cccd-:1:-1:1:31:0:0:0:11:10

to play 31

1.	Rollout1	5/1	eq: +0.826
	Player: Opponent: 89.75% (G:6.27% B:0.06%) 10.25% (G:0.13% B:0.00%) Conf: ± 0.004 (+0.822...+0.830) Duration: 29.8 seconds
2.	Rollout1	7/6 7/4	eq: +0.804 (-0.022)
	Player: Opponent: 89.15% (G:5.18% B:0.07%) 10.85% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf: ± 0.003 (+0.801...+0.807) Duration: 24.2 seconds
1 Truncated at 11 moves using 3 ply. 658 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 44 Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

So how can I misplay this? I don't know - I wasn't confident enough with my rule and managed to find the reason not to play this.


These positions are taken from 1st WSOB HEADS-UP CHAMPIONSHIP - Mochy vs Jurgen Orlowski.
You can download the match from  URL below. The result of the match was L-W-W-W from my point of view.
1st http://dl.dropbox.com/u/3098363/orlowski_go_vegan%20-%20bgmochy2%2017047782.mat (Mochy 3.8 - Jurgen 4.3)
2nd http://dl.dropbox.com/u/3098363/bgmochy2%20-%20orlowski_go_vegan%2017049279.mat (Mochy 2.8 - Jurgen 2.7)
3rd http://dl.dropbox.com/u/3098363/bgmochy2%20-%20orlowski_go_vegan%2017127783.tmg (Mochy 2.4 - Jurgen 4.2)
4th http://dl.dropbox.com/u/3098363/orlowski_go_vegan%20-%20bgmochy2%2017129196.tmg (Mochy 3.5 - Jurgen 2.8)