2010/09/11

Double from the bar

is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 53
                         
3 point match
                          pip: 91
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=-aCCBBB-A----A-------bccfA:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:3:10
on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
  Player Winning Chances: 69.04% (G: 3.49% B: 0.11%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 30.96% (G: 4.38% B: 0.04%)
Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 69.77% (G: 3.47% B: 0.10%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 30.23% (G: 4.59% B: 0.05%)
 
Cubeless Equities
No Double:+0.369
Double:+0.975
 
Cubeful Equities
No Double:+0.584 (-0.168)
Double/Take:+0.753
Double/Drop:+1.000 (+0.247)
 
Best Cube action: Double / Take
 
Rollout details
2680 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 1341
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
 
Confidence No Double: ± 0.005 (+0.579...+0.589)
Confidence Double: ± 0.007 (+0.746...+0.759)
 
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
 
Duration: 1 minute 06 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

Double from the bar! When take side has four point board or more, it is almost always take. Provided with bad distribution of checkers for double side, three point board can be take. Here, my opponent knows that information, but he thought it as a pass because of the score. It is a typical example of over consideration of score factor. Position first, score comes next. Position below is a good benchmarc position.
is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 53
                         
Money session
Jacoby Beaver
                          pip: 83
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=-aBCCCC--------------bccfA:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
  Player Winning Chances: 72.81% (G: 3.69% B: 0.13%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 27.19% (G: 0.65% B: 0.00%)
Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 73.51% (G: 3.69% B: 0.11%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 26.49% (G: 0.64% B: 0.00%)
 
Cubeless Equities
No Double:+0.456
Double:+1.003
 
Cubeful Equities
No Double:+0.616 (-0.204)
Double/Take:+0.821
Double/Drop:+1.000 (+0.179)
 
Best Cube action: Double / Take
 
Rollout details
2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 1341
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
 
Confidence No Double: ± 0.004 (+0.612...+0.621)
Confidence Double: ± 0.005 (+0.816...+0.826)
 
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
 
Duration: 37.4 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

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