Position from 1st WSOB HEADS-UP CHAMPIONSHIP - 06

I call this kind of position "two against one" because I have two checkers trapped behind and he has one checker on the bar.


These are almost always take, and usually boarder line initial double.
As trailing 4-6/11p, Double is mandatory and still take.

is orlowski_go_vegan score: 6 pip: 112

11 point match

pip: 106 score: 4 is bgmochy2

XGID=a-BBBBC-B--a-----bbccbBa--:1:1:1:00:4:6:0:11:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller+
Player Winning Chances:	57.52% (G: 23.28% B: 0.47%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	42.48% (G: 8.20% B: 0.30%)
Cubeless Equities
No Redouble:	+0.327
Redouble:	+0.910
Cubeful Equities
No Redouble:	+0.602 (-0.209)
*Redouble/Take:	+0.811
Redouble/Drop:	+1.000 (+0.189)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

These positions are taken from 1st WSOB HEADS-UP CHAMPIONSHIP - Mochy vs Jurgen Orlowski.
You can download the match from  URL below.

1st match Jurgen beats Mochy (PR Mochy 3.7 - Jurgen 4.0)
http://dl.dropbox.com/u/3098363/orlowski_go_vegan%20-%20bgmochy2%2017047782.mat

2nd match Mochy beats Jurgen (PR Mochy 2.8 - Jurgen 2.7)
http://dl.dropbox.com/u/3098363/bgmochy2%20-%20orlowski_go_vegan%2017049279.mat

Double from the bar

is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 53

3 point match

pip: 91 score: 0 is Player 1

XGID=-aCCBBB-A----A-------bccfA:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:3:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances:	69.04% (G: 3.49% B: 0.11%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	30.96% (G: 4.38% B: 0.04%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	69.77% (G: 3.47% B: 0.10%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	30.23% (G: 4.59% B: 0.05%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:	+0.369
Double:	+0.975
Cubeful Equities
No Double:	+0.584 (-0.168)
Double/Take:	+0.753
Double/Drop:	+1.000 (+0.247)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
2680 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 1341 Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double:	± 0.005 (+0.579...+0.589)
Confidence Double:	± 0.007 (+0.746...+0.759)
Double Decision confidence:	100.0%
Take Decision confidence:	100.0%
Duration: 1 minute 06 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

Double from the bar! When take side has four point board or more, it is almost always take. Provided with bad distribution of checkers for double side, three point board can be take. Here, my opponent knows that information, but he thought it as a pass because of the score. It is a typical example of over consideration of score factor. Position first, score comes next. Position below is a good benchmarc position.

is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 53

Money session Jacoby Beaver

pip: 83 score: 0 is Player 1

XGID=-aBCCCC--------------bccfA:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances:	72.81% (G: 3.69% B: 0.13%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	27.19% (G: 0.65% B: 0.00%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	73.51% (G: 3.69% B: 0.11%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	26.49% (G: 0.64% B: 0.00%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:	+0.456
Double:	+1.003
Cubeful Equities
No Double:	+0.616 (-0.204)
Double/Take:	+0.821
Double/Drop:	+1.000 (+0.179)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 1341 Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double:	± 0.004 (+0.612...+0.621)
Confidence Double:	± 0.005 (+0.816...+0.826)
Double Decision confidence:	100.0%
Take Decision confidence:	100.0%
Duration: 37.4 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

is Player 2 score: 1 pip: 127

5 point match

pip: 150 score: 2 is Player 1

XGID=-a---BDBBB-a----bbcdb-AB--:1:1:1:32:2:1:0:5:10

to play 32

1.	Rollout1	23/21 6/3	eq: -0.671
	Player: Opponent: 34.79% (G:7.19% B:0.38%) 65.21% (G:27.43% B:1.86%) Conf: ± 0.013 (-0.684...-0.658) Duration: 7 minutes 11 seconds
2.	Rollout2	6/4 6/3	eq: -0.702 (-0.031)
	Player: Opponent: 33.80% (G:6.14% B:0.26%) 66.20% (G:27.97% B:2.02%) Conf: ± 0.014 (-0.716...-0.688) Duration: 6 minutes 44 seconds
3.	Rollout3	6/1*	eq: -0.767 (-0.095)
	Player: Opponent: 26.23% (G:4.77% B:0.17%) 73.77% (G:21.08% B:1.12%) Conf: ± 0.013 (-0.780...-0.754) Duration: 5 minutes 15 seconds
4.	Rollout3	9/4	eq: -0.797 (-0.125)
	Player: Opponent: 29.85% (G:5.81% B:0.25%) 70.15% (G:27.47% B:1.80%) Conf: ± 0.014 (-0.811...-0.783) Duration: 4 minutes 06 seconds
5.	Rollout3	7/4 6/4	eq: -0.825 (-0.154)
	Player: Opponent: 27.19% (G:5.23% B:0.23%) 72.81% (G:25.47% B:1.43%) Conf: ± 0.015 (-0.840...-0.810) Duration: 3 minutes 57 seconds
1 Truncated at 11 moves using 4 ply. 410 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 9586 Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply 2 Truncated at 11 moves using 4 ply. 409 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 9586 Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply 3 Truncated at 11 moves using 4 ply. 289 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 9586 Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross