Position from 1st WSOB HEADS-UP CHAMPIONSHIP - 08

Match 4 Game 1

is orlowski_go_vegan score: 0 pip: 138

11 point match

pip: 117 score: 0 is bgmochy2

XGID=--bB--D-CCA-bB---bbcc-a---:1:-1:1:33:0:0:0:11:10

to play 33

1.	Rollout1	13/10(2) 9/3	eq: +0.552
	Player: Opponent: 78.66% (G:5.74% B:0.16%) 21.34% (G:1.58% B:0.06%) Conf: ± 0.008 (+0.544...+0.560) Duration: 3 minutes 22 seconds
* 2.	Rollout1	13/7(2)	eq: +0.491 (-0.061)
	Player: Opponent: 76.13% (G:6.94% B:0.25%) 23.87% (G:2.43% B:0.08%) Conf: ± 0.009 (+0.482...+0.500) Duration: 3 minutes 16 seconds
3.	4 ply	8/5(3) 6/3	eq: +0.394 (-0.157)
	Player: Opponent: 71.56% (G:9.19% B:0.33%) 28.44% (G:3.40% B:0.10%)
1 Truncated at 11 moves using 3 ply. 326 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 9584 Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

In this type of the game, giving your opponent an unnecessaary shot is the last thing to do.
I have a safe play with almost same numbers of builders for four and five point.
Actually seven point may not be a big asset since I may have a problem for clearing it in the future.

These positions are taken from 1st WSOB HEADS-UP CHAMPIONSHIP - Mochy vs Jurgen Orlowski.
You can download the match from  URL below. The result of the match was L-W-W-W from my point of view.
1st http://dl.dropbox.com/u/3098363/orlowski_go_vegan%20-%20bgmochy2%2017047782.mat (Mochy 3.8 - Jurgen 4.3)
2nd http://dl.dropbox.com/u/3098363/bgmochy2%20-%20orlowski_go_vegan%2017049279.mat (Mochy 2.8 - Jurgen 2.7)
3rd http://dl.dropbox.com/u/3098363/bgmochy2%20-%20orlowski_go_vegan%2017127783.tmg (Mochy 2.4 - Jurgen 4.2)
4th http://dl.dropbox.com/u/3098363/orlowski_go_vegan%20-%20bgmochy2%2017129196.tmg (Mochy 3.5 - Jurgen 2.8)

Position from 1st WSOB HEADS-UP CHAMPIONSHIP - 02

Position from 1st WSOB HEADS-UP CHAMPIONSHIP

1st match Jurgen beats Mochy (PR Mochy 3.7 - Jurgen 4.0)
http://dl.dropbox.com/u/3098363/orlowski_go_vegan%20-%20bgmochy2%2017047782.mat
2nd match Mochy beats Jurgen (PR Mochy 2.8 - Jurgen 2.7)
http://dl.dropbox.com/u/3098363/bgmochy2%20-%20orlowski_go_vegan%2017049279.mat

Match 2 Game 3

is orlowski_go_vegan score: 2 pip: 131

11 point match

pip: 116 score: 0 is bgmochy2

XGID=---BBbE-B---bB-B-abeb-a---:1:-1:1:53:0:2:0:11:10

to play 53

* 1.	4 ply	13/10 13/8	eq: +0.155
	Player: Opponent: 62.55% (G:4.82% B:0.18%) 37.45% (G:4.48% B:0.12%)
2.	4 ply	13/8 6/3	eq: +0.060 (-0.095)
	Player: Opponent: 58.56% (G:6.16% B:0.22%) 41.44% (G:6.76% B:0.17%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

Here I made a good play and I am kind a proud of it. :)
My outfield is completly stripped and it is time to pay. Brown has a blot on three point so he needs to roll some perfecta.

Position from 1st WSOB HEADS-UP CHAMPIONSHIP - 01

I am going to post some interesting position from my match against Jurgen Orlowski in 1st WSOB HEADS-UP CHAMPIONSHIP.

2nd match game3

is orlowski_go_vegan score: 2 pip: 140

11 point match

pip: 121 score: 0 is bgmochy2

XGID=-a-BBaE-A---bC-B-bbeb-----:1:-1:1:32:0:2:0:11:10

to play 32

1.	Rollout1	8/5* 5/3	eq: +0.361
	Player: Opponent: 65.10% (G:20.96% B:0.61%) 34.90% (G:7.73% B:0.35%) Conf: ± 0.010 (+0.351...+0.371) Duration: 3 minutes 19 seconds
* 2.	Rollout2	13/8	eq: +0.269 (-0.092)
	Player: Opponent: 64.46% (G:13.66% B:0.39%) 35.54% (G:7.12% B:0.29%) Conf: ± 0.009 (+0.260...+0.278) Duration: 3 minutes 51 seconds
1 Truncated at 11 moves using 3 ply. 326 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 9584 Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply 2 Truncated at 11 moves using 3 ply. 325 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 9584 Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

This is my first serious mistake. I didn't hit because I was afraid of him having anchor on my acepoint.

Now I see why hitting is better.

1, It wins more gammon.

This is the easiest reason I can find (I knew it over the board).

Especially he fans, I have 10 checkers in the zone aiming a lone checker on ace point.

Also he might enter awkwardly (23,24,25,26,35,56) so that I can cotinue my blitzing.

2, Even if he manages to make an anchor on acepoint, is it really worse for me?

I thought being anchord on acepoint is much worse than on five point, but it is actually unclear. It is true that he will have more contact in acepoint games in bear off and later bear in phaze, but atleast I have easier time in early bearin phaze (clearing 15 point and mid point).

If 2 is not clear, then 1 becomes a good reason to choose pick-and-pass play.

is akaisuisei score: 4 pip: 139

11 point match

pip: 79 score: 9 is mochy

XGID=bCCBBCa-------b--Abbbb-bA-:1:1:1:54:9:4:0:11:10

to play 54

1.	Rollout1	17/8	eq: +0.064
	Player: Opponent: 55.84% (G:29.68% B:0.21%) 44.16% (G:4.41% B:0.13%) Conf: ± 0.012 (+0.052...+0.076) Duration: 44.4 seconds
* 2.	Rollout1	17/12 5/1	eq: -0.004 (-0.068)
	Player: Opponent: 53.36% (G:28.88% B:0.23%) 46.64% (G:5.92% B:0.20%) Conf: ± 0.014 (-0.018...+0.010) Duration: 39.4 seconds
1 Truncated at 11 moves using 4 ply. 544 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 1341 Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

I chose 17/12 5/1 with the thought that I would have more pick and pass numbers because I could use six as a picking number while two as a stepping up number. That is true to 64 63 61. What I missed here is that the importance of placing my spare as useful as possible.

-If I roll deuce in next shake, it would be much better to have a spare checker on five point and a lone checker closer to home board. It is much more flexible.

-Small numbers (11, 13, 14) do not allow me to kill my five and six.

-65 force me to move full eleven pips instead of only five with 17/8.(So that 17/8 is better for immediate 65)
You should not missed to see whole picture of the position.

The need to avoid "Double Jeopardy" is rarely exist

(Special Thanks to Karam Ashoo, who kindly corrected my english.I highlighted my mistake for a future study (of english)).

is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 91

Money session Jacoby Beaver

pip: 54 score: 0 is Player 1

XGID=-CCCCbB-----A---a--bbbbbb-:1:-1:1:62:0:0:3:0:10

to play 62

1.	Rollout1	12/6 2/0ff	eq: +0.921
	Player: Opponent: 95.55% (G:2.17% B:0.01%) 4.45% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf: ± 0.001 (+0.920...+0.922) Duration: 43.6 seconds
2.	Rollout1	12/4	eq: +0.910 (-0.011)
	Player: Opponent: 95.38% (G:1.01% B:0.00%) 4.62% (G:0.02% B:0.00%) Conf: ± 0.001 (+0.909...+0.911) Duration: 14.6 seconds
3.	XG Roller+	12/6 4/2	eq: +0.905 (-0.016)
	Player: Opponent: 94.90% (G:1.98% B:0.01%) 5.10% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
4.	XG Roller+	12/6 3/1	eq: +0.901 (-0.020)
	Player: Opponent: 94.66% (G:2.03% B:0.01%) 5.34% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
1 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 1341 Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

I liked Kit Woolsey's article about Avoiding Double Jeopardy July-August issue 1995. Avoiding Double Jeopardy means a play that stripping the six point and leaving 6-1 and 5-1 instead of having three checkers on six point and leaving 6-5 only. ADJ is actually better is from the perspective of minimizing a shot chance in the long run.
However, Kit investigated lot lots of positions and conclude concluded that the need to avoid Double Jeopardy is very rare because of race potential and missing a chance to win Gs.

Today I revisited the positions provided by Kit and can conclude that it is even more rarer rarer than he might have thought. Position above is from Kit's article and he showed it as an example of where ADJ is right.Extreme gammon thinks the opposite. Even here ADJ is not right simply because he couldn't win as many gammons as he would with 2/off.

Even so, you should be paying attention to the score. In double match point or sort of close to it, it could easily be right to play 12/4 and ADJ, all in all, it is the safest play in terms of leaving a shot. A position below is a good example.

is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 102

1 point match

pip: 54 score: 0 is Player 1

XGID=-CCCCcB-----A------bbbbbb-:1:-1:1:26:0:0:0:1:10

to play 26

1.	Rollout1	12/4	eq: +0.920
	Player: Opponent: 95.99% (G:26.00% B:0.00%) 4.01% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf: ± 0.001 (+0.919...+0.921) Duration: 13.9 seconds
2.	Rollout1	12/6 2/0ff	eq: +0.913 (-0.006)
	Player: Opponent: 95.67% (G:30.81% B:0.01%) 4.33% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf: ± 0.001 (+0.912...+0.914) Duration: 35.9 seconds
3.	XG Roller	12/6 4/2	eq: +0.922 (+0.002)
	Player: Opponent: 96.09% (G:5.75% B:0.01%) 3.91% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
4.	XG Roller	12/6 3/1	eq: +0.920
	Player: Opponent: 96.01% (G:5.26% B:0.01%) 3.99% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
1 1332 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 1341 Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

Also if two point is empty, then 6/4 would be right. It is just the safest and 4/2 won't gain as much as 2/off would.

is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 102

Money session Jacoby Beaver

pip: 56 score: 0 is Player 1

XGID=-D-DDcB-----A------bbbbbb-:1:-1:1:26:0:0:3:0:10

to play 26

1.	Rollout1	12/4	eq: +0.958
	Player: Opponent: 95.87% (G:4.77% B:0.00%) 4.13% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf: ± 0.001 (+0.957...+0.959) Duration: 12.4 seconds
2.	Rollout1	12/6 4/2	eq: +0.945 (-0.013)
	Player: Opponent: 95.14% (G:5.16% B:0.00%) 4.86% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf: ± 0.001 (+0.944...+0.946) Duration: 34.2 seconds
1 1508 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 1341 Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

is neilkaz score: 7 pip: 98

11 point match

pip: 89 score: 2 is mochy

XGID=--BB-bDCBB-------b-bbbbc--:1:-1:1:31:2:7:0:11:10

to play 31

1.	XG Roller+	7/4 2/1	eq: +0.340
	Player: Opponent: 68.92% (G:1.31% B:0.01%) 31.08% (G:0.39% B:0.01%)
* 2.	XG Roller+	7/3	eq: +0.311 (-0.029)
	Player: Opponent: 67.89% (G:0.82% B:0.01%) 32.11% (G:0.39% B:0.01%)
3.	4 ply	7/4 3/2	eq: +0.326 (-0.014)
	Player: Opponent: 68.53% (G:1.00% B:0.01%) 31.47% (G:0.49% B:0.00%)
4.	4 ply	9/8 9/6	eq: +0.312 (-0.027)
	Player: Opponent: 68.02% (G:0.71% B:0.00%) 31.98% (G:0.23% B:0.00%)
5.	3 ply	6/2	eq: +0.310 (-0.030)
	Player: Opponent: 67.96% (G:0.89% B:0.00%) 32.04% (G:0.48% B:0.00%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

Only 64, 63 and 62 will be good for 7/3. All other rolls are better with 7/4 2/1.
You are comfortably ahead in the race and you shouldn't be bothered by escaping. This game will likely be in the race and you want to fill the point. As race get closer, it gets correct to play without blots. (Oppsite is also true)