2010/08/31

Last problem of "100 backgammon puzzles" by Paul Lamford 3

Even 4ply rollout doesn't understand proper cube action here. XG 4ply will take bad cube in later stage so that he states it is too good now.
is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 60
                         
Money session
Jacoby Beaver
                          pip: 330
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=-------------------eEeEeE-:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
  Player Winning Chances: 75.60% (G: 54.91% B: 26.59%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 24.40% (G: 0.01% B: 0.00%)
Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 72.41% (G: 60.97% B: 26.96%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 27.59% (G: 0.14% B: 0.00%)
 
Cubeless Equities
No Double:+0.512
Double:+2.652
 
Cubeful Equities
No Double:+1.016
Double/Take:+2.415 (+1.399)
Double/Drop:+1.000 (-0.016)
 
Best Cube action: Too Good to Double / Drop
 
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 1341
Moves and cube decisions: 4 ply
 
Confidence No Double: ± 0.012 (+1.004...+1.028)
Confidence Double: ± 0.107 (+2.308...+2.522)
 
Double Decision confidence: 99.5%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
 
Duration: 3 hours 31 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

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