1st WSOB HEADS-UP CHAMPIONSHIP - post match quote ANALYZED

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1st position
1st match. Black(Jurgen) is leading 7-0/11p and on roll. Cube action?

is orlowski_go_vegan score: 7 pip: 117

11 point match

pip: 158 score: 0 is bgmochy2

XGID=a---BAD-BA--bB----bebc-BA-:0:0:-1:00:0:7:0:11:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances:	66.24% (G: 34.19% B: 3.48%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	33.76% (G: 5.80% B: 0.25%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	66.29% (G: 35.39% B: 3.64%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	33.71% (G: 5.80% B: 0.25%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:	+0.726
Double:	+1.285
Cubeful Equities
No Double:	+0.713
*Double/Take:	+0.503 (-0.210)
Double/Drop:	+1.000 (+0.287)
Best Cube action: No Double / Take
Rollout details
650 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 44 Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double:	± 0.018 (+0.695...+0.731)
Confidence Double:	± 0.028 (+0.475...+0.531)
Double Decision confidence:	100.0%
Take Decision confidence:	100.0%
Duration: 6 minutes 21 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

[Thanks to Bob Wachtel who kindly edited this 1st position analysis]

When you are trailing by this much in a match, you only need to see a few realistic paths to victory to be able to take the cube.
In this case, Black (Jurgen) might dance or roll 26 or 24 from the bar. If that happens, I would have about a 40% chance to win the game, and would very close to a redouble already (it may already be one). In fact, redoubling would have another benefit: while magnifying the effect of my own gammons, it would exactly nullify the value of Jurgen's gammons! Even though the odds of my gammoning Jurgen from this position are small, the payoff is huge: and it is this outcome, rather than the negative one of my being gammoned, upon which I should focus.
Even if worst comes to worst - say he hits and I dance - I will still have a well-timed deuce-point game.
Actually Jurgen doubled too early. He would have had a good cube after a hit-and-poor-entering sequence.

2nd position
Later in the same game, White(Mochy) holding a cube on two. Cube action?

is orlowski_go_vegan score: 7 pip: 130

11 point match

pip: 167 score: 0 is bgmochy2

XGID=a--aBAC-BA--bB---AbdbbABa-:1:1:1:00:0:7:0:11:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances:	55.15% (G: 18.53% B: 0.81%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	44.85% (G: 19.59% B: 1.58%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	55.66% (G: 20.05% B: 1.03%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	44.34% (G: 20.50% B: 1.99%)
Cubeless Equities
No Redouble:	+0.176
Redouble:	+1.188
Cubeful Equities
No Redouble:	+0.910 (-0.090)
*Redouble/Take:	+1.188 (+0.188)
Redouble/Drop:	+1.000
Best Cube action: Redouble / Drop
Rollout details
327 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 9584 Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Redouble:	± 0.015 (+0.895...+0.925)
Confidence Redouble:	± 0.022 (+1.166...+1.211)
Double Decision confidence:	100.0%
Take Decision confidence:	100.0%
Duration: 4 minutes 02 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

Black's raw take point is about 30% and my gammon price is almost 1. That means this situation is similar to 2away - 4away cube action except take point is 10% higher.
I am not sure whether take or not for 2away - 4away so it is a huge pass at this score.

3rd position
2nd match. Jurgen (Black) is on roll. Match is tied at 2-2/11p. Cube action?

is orlowski_go_vegan score: 2 pip: 15

11 point match

pip: 45 score: 2 is bgmochy2

XGID=-B-BB-B----------A-----am-:1:-1:-1:00:2:2:0:11:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances:	80.53% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	19.47% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	81.68% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	18.32% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
Cubeless Equities
No Redouble:	+0.599
Redouble:	+1.316
Cubeful Equities
No Redouble:	+0.885 (-0.115)
*Redouble/Take:	+1.217 (+0.217)
Redouble/Drop:	+1.000
Best Cube action: Redouble / Drop
Rollout details
2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 9584 Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Redouble:	± 0.002 (+0.883...+0.887)
Confidence Redouble:	± 0.004 (+1.213...+1.221)
Double Decision confidence:	100.0%
Take Decision confidence:	100.0%
Duration: 1.5 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

I calculated my wastege as 9 pips but infact it is 10.5 pips and this 1.5 pips leads me making horrible mistake here.(1pip compenasate about 3% in this length of the race.) I need to re-study about wastege.

4th potision.
3rd match. Jurgen (Black) is trailing 6-8/11p and on roll but he is on the bar. Cube action?

is orlowski_go_vegan score: 6 pip: 153

11 point match

pip: 58 score: 8 is bgmochy2

XGID=aDbEbAC-B----------bbbbb--:0:0:-1:00:8:6:0:11:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances:	65.99% (G: 13.86% B: 0.57%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	34.01% (G: 18.50% B: 1.50%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	66.78% (G: 17.48% B: 0.78%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	33.22% (G: 18.78% B: 4.41%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:	+0.202
Double:	+0.698
Cubeful Equities
No Double:	+0.457 (-0.218)
*Double/Take:	+0.675
Double/Drop:	+1.000 (+0.325)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
854 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 44 Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double:	± 0.016 (+0.441...+0.472)
Confidence Double:	± 0.032 (+0.643...+0.706)
Double Decision confidence:	100.0%
Take Decision confidence:	100.0%
Duration: 17 minutes 22 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

Black will miss with 17 numbers including 9 dances and anti-joker 44.

SORRY THIS POST IS NOT FINISHED YET. I WILL WRITE IT AGAIN SOON>

I never understand this

I never understand what is the best play and why. Any ideas?

is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 34

Money session Jacoby Beaver

pip: 134 score: 0 is Player 1

XGID=--BBBBC------------c-BcBg-:1:1:1:32:0:0:3:0:10

to play 32

1.	Rollout1	21/16	eq: -0.683
	Player: Opponent: 33.66% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 66.34% (G:47.82% B:0.37%) Conf: ± 0.008 (-0.691...-0.675) Duration: 58.8 seconds
2.	Rollout1	23/20 6/4	eq: -0.741 (-0.059)
	Player: Opponent: 33.61% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 66.39% (G:53.07% B:0.21%) Conf: ± 0.007 (-0.748...-0.734) Duration: 53.0 seconds
3.	XG Roller+	21/18 6/4	eq: -0.728 (-0.046)
	Player: Opponent: 32.18% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 67.82% (G:48.81% B:0.62%)
1 Truncated at 11 moves using 3 ply. 655 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 44 Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

1st WSOB HEADS-UP CHAMPIONSHIP - post match quote

AGGGGH!

1st WSOB HEADS-UP CHAMPIONSHIP in PlayWSOB was over and I was lucky to triumph in the war against current #27 Backgammon Giant Jürgen Orlowski (though he is deserved to be better ranking).
The match was commentated by Paul Weaver and Chris Bray so thet kibitzers could enjoy world class games with analysis by world class lecturers. I would like to thank them again here.

Jurgen played very well. I thought he was the best player I had played in 2011 except Falafel.
Whenever I play backgammon against human, they always make obvious mistakes and that make me feel confident and comfortable. However, Jurgen did the oppsoite - I couldn't point out his mistake - so I even chatted "I don't like this opponent" in the game as a joke.

It wasn't easy matches for me also because I had to start the match at 23:00 in my time and ended in almost 4:00 in the morning. (We played two matches per day but I made a lot of comments during the game - it made a match much longer than usual) So I and my wife celebrate my win with coffee and toast in the morning instead of champagne and a dinner.

Anyway - I am very happy to be 1st HEADS-UP CHAMPION at PlayWSOB and looking for a new challenger in 2nd HEADS-UP CHAMPIONSHIP.

I am going to show some key cube actions from all four matches here.
We made a big blunder almost every position shown below. The reason why it was so difficult was that the score is lopsided. It changes cube action drastically.


1st position
1st match. Black(Jurgen) is leading 7-0/11p and on roll. Cube action?

is orlowski_go_vegan score: 7 pip: 117

11 point match

pip: 158 score: 0 is bgmochy2

XGID=a---BAD-BA--bB----bebc-BA-:0:0:-1:00:0:7:0:11:10

on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

2nd position.
Later in the same game, White(Mochy) holding a cube on two. Cube action?

is orlowski_go_vegan score: 7 pip: 130

11 point match

pip: 167 score: 0 is bgmochy2

XGID=a--aBAC-BA--bB---AbdbbABa-:1:1:1:00:0:7:0:11:10

on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

3rd position.
2nd match. Jurgen (Black) is on roll. Match is tied at 2-2/11p. Cube action?

is orlowski_go_vegan score: 2 pip: 15

11 point match

pip: 45 score: 2 is bgmochy2

XGID=-B-BB-B----------A-----am-:1:-1:-1:00:2:2:0:11:10

on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

(One roll earlier, the position was this. White (Mochy) was playing for Gammon!!!)

is orlowski_go_vegan score: 2 pip: 35

11 point match

pip: 48 score: 2 is bgmochy2

XGID=-B-BBaB-------------A--am-:1:-1:-1:55:2:2:0:11:10

to play 55

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

 4th potision.
3rd match. Jurgen (Black) is trailing 6-8/11p and on roll but he is on the bar. Cube action?

is orlowski_go_vegan score: 6 pip: 153

11 point match

pip: 58 score: 8 is bgmochy2

XGID=aDbEbAC-B----------bbbbb--:0:0:-1:00:8:6:0:11:10

on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

5th position.
Black (Jurgen) is on roll. Match is tied at 2-2/11p. Cube action?

is orlowski_go_vegan score: 2 pip: 119

11 point match

pip: 142 score: 2 is bgmochy2

XGID=---BbBCBA---aC-a-bbc--AbbA:0:0:-1:00:2:2:0:11:10

on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

 6th position.
4th match. Jurgen (Black) is leading 8-2/11p and on roll. Cube action ?

is orlowski_go_vegan score: 8 pip: 128

11 point match

pip: 116 score: 2 is bgmochy2

XGID=---BbaEBCB-------bbbbbb-A-:0:0:-1:00:2:8:0:11:10

on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

7th position.
Later in the same game. Black (Jurgen) broke a full prime. White is on roll and holding two cube. Cube action?
 

is orlowski_go_vegan score: 8 pip: 124

11 point match

pip: 116 score: 2 is bgmochy2

XGID=---BabEBCB-------abbcbb-A-:1:1:1:00:2:8:0:11:10

on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

Answers and analyses will be posted in 48 hours. Comments are welcome as always.


These positions are taken from 1st WSOB HEADS-UP CHAMPIONSHIP - Mochy vs Jurgen Orlowski.
You can download the match from  URL below. The result of the match was L-W-W-W from my point of view.
1st http://dl.dropbox.com/u/3098363/orlowski_go_vegan%20-%20bgmochy2%2017047782.mat (Mochy 3.8 - Jurgen 4.3)
2nd http://dl.dropbox.com/u/3098363/bgmochy2%20-%20orlowski_go_vegan%2017049279.mat (Mochy 2.8 - Jurgen 2.7)
3rd http://dl.dropbox.com/u/3098363/bgmochy2%20-%20orlowski_go_vegan%2017127783.tmg (Mochy 2.4 - Jurgen 4.2)
4th http://dl.dropbox.com/u/3098363/orlowski_go_vegan%20-%20bgmochy2%2017129196.tmg (Mochy 3.5 - Jurgen 2.8)