2010/08/30

Last problem of "100 backgammon puzzles" by Paul Lamford 2

I created a new position from Paul's last problem.
XG thinks it is way too good (with jacoby and centered cube???). This is insane.
is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 60
                         
Money session
Jacoby Beaver
                          pip: 263
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=-------------BBBBAAeAeBeB-:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
  Player Winning Chances: 68.10% (G: 53.43% B: 15.73%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 31.90% (G: 0.06% B: 0.00%)
Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 70.07% (G: 56.74% B: 18.08%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 29.93% (G: 0.13% B: 0.00%)
 
Cubeless Equities
No Double:+0.362
Double:+2.297
 
Cubeful Equities
No Double:+1.490
Double/Take:+2.056 (+0.566)
Double/Drop:+1.000 (-0.490)
 
Best Cube action: Too Good to Double / Drop
 
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 1341
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
 
Confidence No Double: ± 0.092 (+1.398...+1.582)
Confidence Double: ± 0.124 (+1.932...+2.181)
 
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
 
Duration: 43 minutes 15 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

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