2010/12/18

It doesn't matter

is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 7
                         
1 point match
                          pip: 17
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=--AAC------------------bc-:0:0:1:51:0:0:0:1:10
to play 51

1.XG Roller+4/0ff 2/1eq: -0.157
Player:
Opponent:
42.14% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
57.86% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
2.XG Roller+4/3 4/0ffeq: -0.234 (-0.077)
Player:
Opponent:
38.29% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
61.71% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

I was in auto pilot and my plane was fired down!

+500

is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 127
                         
Money session
Jacoby Beaver
                          pip: 134
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=-bB-BBB-BA--cB-----bbbbbAA:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
  Player Winning Chances: 70.58% (G: 40.38% B: 2.57%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 29.42% (G: 7.85% B: 0.50%)
Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 72.61% (G: 44.75% B: 2.34%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 27.39% (G: 7.51% B: 0.48%)
 
Cubeless Equities
No Double:+0.412
Double:+1.686
 
Cubeful Equities
No Double:+0.855 (-0.145)
Double/Take:+1.485 (+0.485)
Double/Drop:+1.000
 
Best Cube action: Double / Drop
 
Rollout details
1300 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 9584
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
 
Confidence No Double: ± 0.011 (+0.844...+0.866)
Confidence Double: ± 0.026 (+1.459...+1.511)
 
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
 
Duration: 14 minutes 02 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

I made a nearly quintuple blunder here! I thought if I could have manage to make an anchor on acepoint, I would have a decent game. However, I had to think about the other side of the story. If I couldn't make an anchor, almost sure I would lose gammon. Also, anchoring doesn't mean I would be a favorite. I would be still trapped two (or even three) checkers behind five prime.


is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 127
                         
Money session
Jacoby Beaver
                          pip: 136
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=-b-BBBB-BA--cB-----bbbbbAA:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
  Player Winning Chances: 66.44% (G: 37.44% B: 1.99%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 33.56% (G: 8.70% B: 0.54%)
Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 67.39% (G: 39.94% B: 2.08%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 32.61% (G: 8.19% B: 0.48%)
 
Cubeless Equities
No Double:+0.329
Double:+1.362
 
Cubeful Equities
No Double:+0.820 (-0.180)
Double/Take:+1.124 (+0.124)
Double/Drop:+1.000
 
Best Cube action: Double / Drop
 
Rollout details
1298 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 9584
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
 
Confidence No Double: ± 0.019 (+0.801...+0.838)
Confidence Double: ± 0.030 (+1.094...+1.153)
 
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
 
Duration: 18 minutes 16 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

I shifted from two point to three point of my inner board. It is still a clear pass.


is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 125
                         
Money session
Jacoby Beaver
                          pip: 133
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=-bB-BBB-BA--cB-----bbbbAbA:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
  Player Winning Chances: 63.35% (G: 37.32% B: 1.58%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 36.65% (G: 10.76% B: 0.61%)
Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 64.36% (G: 39.60% B: 1.46%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 35.64% (G: 10.46% B: 0.65%)
 
Cubeless Equities
No Double:+0.267
Double:+1.173
 
Cubeful Equities
No Double:+0.705 (-0.179)
Double/Take:+0.885
Double/Drop:+1.000 (+0.115)
 
Best Cube action: Double / Take
 
Rollout details
973 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 9584
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
 
Confidence No Double: ± 0.027 (+0.679...+0.732)
Confidence Double: ± 0.035 (+0.850...+0.919)
 
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
 
Duration: 10 minutes 32 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

Shifting from acepoint open to deucepoint make it clear take though.

2010/09/26

Backgammon is an interesting game

I have never been board of playing BG. It has consistently given me new interesting positions, surpriseness and awareness.
is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 70
                         
Money session
Jacoby Beaver
                          pip: 86
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=-ABBBBCB---------bbbbbbabA:1:1:1:22:0:0:3:0:10
to play 22

1.XG Roller+Bar/23* 6/4 3/1(2)eq: -0.512
Player:
Opponent:
22.17% (G:4.06% B:0.06%)
77.83% (G:6.51% B:0.14%)
2.XG Roller+Bar/23* 7/5 7/3eq: -0.643 (-0.131)
Player:
Opponent:
19.25% (G:2.82% B:0.14%)
80.75% (G:11.50% B:0.25%)
3.XG Roller+Bar/23* 7/5(2) 6/4eq: -0.655 (-0.142)
Player:
Opponent:
18.61% (G:2.56% B:0.12%)
81.39% (G:10.93% B:0.23%)
4.3 plyBar/23* 7/5 3/1(2)eq: -0.691 (-0.179)
Player:
Opponent:
16.17% (G:2.66% B:0.07%)
83.83% (G:9.23% B:0.17%)
5.3 plyBar/23* 5/3 5/1eq: -0.692 (-0.180)
Player:
Opponent:
15.18% (G:1.77% B:0.03%)
84.82% (G:6.28% B:0.12%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

31 32 34 is key numbers. It would be even game after those rolls. It is much better than breaking bar point and hoping that something (unrealistic) good will happen.

2010/09/19

Simple bear off

is akaisuisei

score: 2
pip: 26
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 36
score: 9

is mochy
XGID=----BBC------------ac-aa--:1:1:1:52:9:2:0:11:10
to play 52

1.Rollout16/4 5/0ffeq: -0.503
Player:
Opponent:
24.87% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
75.13% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf: ± 0.000 (-0.503...-0.503)
Duration: 0.4 second
* 2.Rollout15/0ff 4/2eq: -0.525 (-0.022)
Player:
Opponent:
23.76% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
76.24% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf: ± 0.000 (-0.525...-0.525)
Duration: 0.4 second
 
1 Truncated at 11 moves using 4 ply.
2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 1341
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

After 11 years of professional career, I still do not know how to play simple bear off. What a fish.
Black has a clear advantage and Yellow needs to roll something good. Yellow needs to prepare to roll something good. It is time to prepare for fours, not deuce.
is akaisuisei

score: 4
pip: 139
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 79
score: 9

is mochy
XGID=bCCBBCa-------b--Abbbb-bA-:1:1:1:54:9:4:0:11:10
to play 54

1.Rollout117/8eq: +0.064
Player:
Opponent:
55.84% (G:29.68% B:0.21%)
44.16% (G:4.41% B:0.13%)
Conf: ± 0.012 (+0.052...+0.076)
Duration: 44.4 seconds
* 2.Rollout117/12 5/1eq: -0.004 (-0.068)
Player:
Opponent:
53.36% (G:28.88% B:0.23%)
46.64% (G:5.92% B:0.20%)
Conf: ± 0.014 (-0.018...+0.010)
Duration: 39.4 seconds
 
1 Truncated at 11 moves using 4 ply.
544 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 1341
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

I chose 17/12 5/1 with the thought that I would have more pick and pass numbers because I could use six as a picking number while two as a stepping up number. That is true to 64 63 61. What I missed here is that the importance of placing my spare as useful as possible.

-If I roll deuce in next shake, it would be much better to have a spare checker on five point and a lone checker closer to home board. It is much more flexible.

-Small numbers (11, 13, 14) do not allow me to kill my five and six.

-65 force me to move full eleven pips instead of only five with 17/8.(So that 17/8 is better for immediate 65)
You should not missed to see whole picture of the position.

2010/09/16

is Kiyokazu Nishikawa

score: 0
pip: 133
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 133
score: 0

is Masayuki Mochizuki
XGID=-Ba-B-D-B---cC---cbcc-B---:0:0:1:65:0:0:0:11:10
to play 65

1.Rollout122/11eq: -0.340
Player:
Opponent:
40.74% (G:11.89% B:0.26%)
59.26% (G:16.61% B:0.62%)
Conf: ± 0.014 (-0.354...-0.326)
Duration: 2 minutes 53 seconds
* 2.Rollout113/2* eq: -0.442 (-0.102)
Player:
Opponent:
37.26% (G:11.22% B:0.12%)
62.74% (G:12.08% B:0.56%)
Conf: ± 0.015 (-0.457...-0.427)
Duration: 2 minutes 32 seconds
3.XG Roller+22/16 13/8eq: -0.454 (-0.114)
Player:
Opponent:
37.97% (G:11.80% B:0.30%)
62.03% (G:20.47% B:0.78%)
4.2 ply8/3 8/2* eq: -0.635 (-0.295)
Player:
Opponent:
32.34% (G:8.06% B:0.06%)
67.66% (G:14.44% B:0.60%)
5.1 ply8/2* 6/1eq: -0.710 (-0.370)
Player:
Opponent:
31.09% (G:6.89% B:0.07%)
68.91% (G:14.10% B:0.58%)
 
1 Truncated at 11 moves using 4 ply.
290 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 9586
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

2010/09/15

is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 147
                         
Money session
Jacoby Beaver
                          pip: 142
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=aaBBA-BBB---a---bbce-C-A--:1:-1:1:53:0:0:3:0:10
to play 53

1.XG Roller+23/15eq: -0.108
Player:
Opponent:
50.37% (G:17.97% B:0.93%)
49.63% (G:11.40% B:0.49%)
* 2.XG Roller+7/4 7/2eq: -0.302 (-0.194)
Player:
Opponent:
43.22% (G:16.46% B:0.75%)
56.78% (G:12.15% B:0.50%)
3.XG Roller+8/3 7/4eq: -0.345 (-0.237)
Player:
Opponent:
42.19% (G:16.80% B:0.74%)
57.81% (G:13.92% B:0.61%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

Quite difficult for me.