Double from the bar

is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 53

3 point match

pip: 91 score: 0 is Player 1

XGID=-aCCBBB-A----A-------bccfA:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:3:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances:	69.04% (G: 3.49% B: 0.11%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	30.96% (G: 4.38% B: 0.04%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	69.77% (G: 3.47% B: 0.10%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	30.23% (G: 4.59% B: 0.05%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:	+0.369
Double:	+0.975
Cubeful Equities
No Double:	+0.584 (-0.168)
Double/Take:	+0.753
Double/Drop:	+1.000 (+0.247)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
2680 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 1341 Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double:	± 0.005 (+0.579...+0.589)
Confidence Double:	± 0.007 (+0.746...+0.759)
Double Decision confidence:	100.0%
Take Decision confidence:	100.0%
Duration: 1 minute 06 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

Double from the bar! When take side has four point board or more, it is almost always take. Provided with bad distribution of checkers for double side, three point board can be take. Here, my opponent knows that information, but he thought it as a pass because of the score. It is a typical example of over consideration of score factor. Position first, score comes next. Position below is a good benchmarc position.

is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 53

Money session Jacoby Beaver

pip: 83 score: 0 is Player 1

XGID=-aBCCCC--------------bccfA:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances:	72.81% (G: 3.69% B: 0.13%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	27.19% (G: 0.65% B: 0.00%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	73.51% (G: 3.69% B: 0.11%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	26.49% (G: 0.64% B: 0.00%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:	+0.456
Double:	+1.003
Cubeful Equities
No Double:	+0.616 (-0.204)
Double/Take:	+0.821
Double/Drop:	+1.000 (+0.179)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 1341 Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double:	± 0.004 (+0.612...+0.621)
Confidence Double:	± 0.005 (+0.816...+0.826)
Double Decision confidence:	100.0%
Take Decision confidence:	100.0%
Duration: 37.4 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

is Player 2 score: 1 pip: 127

5 point match

pip: 150 score: 2 is Player 1

XGID=-a---BDBBB-a----bbcdb-AB--:1:1:1:32:2:1:0:5:10

to play 32

1.	Rollout1	23/21 6/3	eq: -0.671
	Player: Opponent: 34.79% (G:7.19% B:0.38%) 65.21% (G:27.43% B:1.86%) Conf: ± 0.013 (-0.684...-0.658) Duration: 7 minutes 11 seconds
2.	Rollout2	6/4 6/3	eq: -0.702 (-0.031)
	Player: Opponent: 33.80% (G:6.14% B:0.26%) 66.20% (G:27.97% B:2.02%) Conf: ± 0.014 (-0.716...-0.688) Duration: 6 minutes 44 seconds
3.	Rollout3	6/1*	eq: -0.767 (-0.095)
	Player: Opponent: 26.23% (G:4.77% B:0.17%) 73.77% (G:21.08% B:1.12%) Conf: ± 0.013 (-0.780...-0.754) Duration: 5 minutes 15 seconds
4.	Rollout3	9/4	eq: -0.797 (-0.125)
	Player: Opponent: 29.85% (G:5.81% B:0.25%) 70.15% (G:27.47% B:1.80%) Conf: ± 0.014 (-0.811...-0.783) Duration: 4 minutes 06 seconds
5.	Rollout3	7/4 6/4	eq: -0.825 (-0.154)
	Player: Opponent: 27.19% (G:5.23% B:0.23%) 72.81% (G:25.47% B:1.43%) Conf: ± 0.015 (-0.840...-0.810) Duration: 3 minutes 57 seconds
1 Truncated at 11 moves using 4 ply. 410 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 9586 Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply 2 Truncated at 11 moves using 4 ply. 409 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 9586 Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply 3 Truncated at 11 moves using 4 ply. 289 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 9586 Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

is Player 2 score: 2 pip: 134

13 point match

pip: 155 score: 8 is Player 1

XGID=-a-A--E-C-a-eD-----bbAb-bA:1:1:1:62:8:2:0:13:10

to play 62

1.	XG Roller+	Bar/23 13/7	eq: -0.643
	Player: Opponent: 33.46% (G:7.81% B:0.36%) 66.54% (G:31.72% B:2.16%)
2.	XG Roller+	Bar/23 8/2	eq: -0.764 (-0.121)
	Player: Opponent: 30.40% (G:6.62% B:0.28%) 69.60% (G:35.66% B:2.38%)
3.	XG Roller+	Bar/17	eq: -0.789 (-0.146)
	Player: Opponent: 29.18% (G:5.39% B:0.22%) 70.82% (G:36.27% B:1.52%)
4.	2 ply	Bar/23 21/15	eq: -0.814 (-0.171)
	Player: Opponent: 28.40% (G:5.55% B:0.22%) 71.60% (G:36.87% B:1.57%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

You should stay in his inner board to establish an anchor. I was afraid of leaving too many blots, but it doesn't really matter if you have three blots or four. Highest priority here is secure your anchor.

Falafel's 52

is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 106

Money session Jacoby Beaver

pip: 113 score: 0 is Player 1

XGID=--Ba-BCCBA-A----abcd-bb-A-:1:-1:1:52:0:0:3:0:10

to play 52

1.	XG Roller+	11/9 8/3*	eq: -0.380
	Player: Opponent: 43.90% (G:11.44% B:0.36%) 56.10% (G:18.56% B:1.03%)
2.	XG Roller+	11/9 7/2	eq: -0.493 (-0.113)
	Player: Opponent: 38.42% (G:5.84% B:0.18%) 61.58% (G:11.88% B:0.40%)
3.	XG Roller+	8/3* 7/5	eq: -0.497 (-0.117)
	Player: Opponent: 41.25% (G:10.66% B:0.34%) 58.75% (G:22.97% B:3.14%)
4.	XG Roller+	8/3* 5/3	eq: -0.503 (-0.123)
	Player: Opponent: 41.08% (G:10.08% B:0.33%) 58.92% (G:23.12% B:2.86%)
5.	XG Roller+	9/4 6/4	eq: -0.551 (-0.171)
	Player: Opponent: 36.70% (G:7.45% B:0.25%) 63.30% (G:10.66% B:0.45%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

This came up in Swedish Open 2010. Several people discussed plays but only falafel got it right. It is actually clear play once you see it. You can keep him from making 5point by putting him on the bar. Making 4point is really bad play because it gave opponent too many good numbers.

Last problem of "100 backgammon puzzles" by Paul Lamford 3

Even 4ply rollout doesn't understand proper cube action here. XG 4ply will take bad cube in later stage so that he states it is too good now.

is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 60

Money session Jacoby Beaver

pip: 330 score: 0 is Player 1

XGID=-------------------eEeEeE-:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances:	75.60% (G: 54.91% B: 26.59%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	24.40% (G: 0.01% B: 0.00%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	72.41% (G: 60.97% B: 26.96%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	27.59% (G: 0.14% B: 0.00%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:	+0.512
Double:	+2.652
Cubeful Equities
No Double:	+1.016
Double/Take:	+2.415 (+1.399)
Double/Drop:	+1.000 (-0.016)
Best Cube action: Too Good to Double / Drop
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 1341 Moves and cube decisions: 4 ply
Confidence No Double:	± 0.012 (+1.004...+1.028)
Confidence Double:	± 0.107 (+2.308...+2.522)
Double Decision confidence:	99.5%
Take Decision confidence:	100.0%
Duration: 3 hours 31 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

Last problem of "100 backgammon puzzles" by Paul Lamford 2

I created a new position from Paul's last problem.
XG thinks it is way too good (with jacoby and centered cube???). This is insane.

is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 60

Money session Jacoby Beaver

pip: 263 score: 0 is Player 1

XGID=-------------BBBBAAeAeBeB-:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances:	68.10% (G: 53.43% B: 15.73%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	31.90% (G: 0.06% B: 0.00%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	70.07% (G: 56.74% B: 18.08%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	29.93% (G: 0.13% B: 0.00%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:	+0.362
Double:	+2.297
Cubeful Equities
No Double:	+1.490
Double/Take:	+2.056 (+0.566)
Double/Drop:	+1.000 (-0.490)
Best Cube action: Too Good to Double / Drop
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 1341 Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double:	± 0.092 (+1.398...+1.582)
Confidence Double:	± 0.124 (+1.932...+2.181)
Double Decision confidence:	100.0%
Take Decision confidence:	100.0%
Duration: 43 minutes 15 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

Last problem of "100 backgammon puzzles" by Paul Lamford

is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 60

Money session Jacoby Beaver

pip: 330 score: 0 is Player 1

XGID=-------------------eEeEeE-:0:0:-1:D:0:0:3:0:10

double to 2 take ?

Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances:	83.98% (G: 56.17% B: 30.61%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	16.02% (G: 0.01% B: 0.00%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	81.40% (G: 69.01% B: 39.53%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	18.60% (G: 0.14% B: 0.00%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:	+0.680
Double:	+3.424
Cubeful Equities
No Double:	+1.024
Double/Take:	+3.257 (+2.233)
Double/Drop:	+1.000 (-0.024)
Best Cube action: Too Good to Double / Drop
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 1341 Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double:	± 0.017 (+1.007...+1.041)
Confidence Double:	± 0.136 (+3.121...+3.392)
Double Decision confidence:	99.7%
Take Decision confidence:	100.0%
Duration: 20 minutes 42 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

This is a last problem of "100 backgammon puzzles" written by Paul Lamford. Paul says it is very easy take there fore no-doulbe is proper cube action. XG rollout (3ply full) is strongly against it.
However, I coudn't trust bot's recommendation of "too good to double" with Jacoby rule, centerd cube. Who is wrong, bot or Paul?
I set up XG playing each other to see how bot plays. I understand why it was too good. 3ply bot will take the bad cube later, so that doubler can gain by waiting one more roll.
Also, 3ply can't handle the outside prime("snake") properly. As a result, take side simply wasting TOO MUCH equity in the process.
The position below is ending scene of rollout and good sample of how bad bot plays. Human wouldn't stack 7 checkers on the 18point in this game.

is eXtremeGammon score: 0 pip: 10

Money session Jacoby Beaver

pip: 242 score: 0 is Masayuki Mochizuki

XGID=---------BC-------G-Aa-cB-:1:1:-1:66:0:0:3:0:10

to play 66

* 1.	3 ply	4/0ff 2/0ff(3)	eq: +3.000
	Player: Opponent: 100.00% (G:100.00% B:100.00%) 0.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21