It doesn't matter

is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 7

1 point match

pip: 17 score: 0 is Player 1

XGID=--AAC------------------bc-:0:0:1:51:0:0:0:1:10

to play 51

1.	XG Roller+	4/0ff 2/1	eq: -0.157
	Player: Opponent: 42.14% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 57.86% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
2.	XG Roller+	4/3 4/0ff	eq: -0.234 (-0.077)
	Player: Opponent: 38.29% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 61.71% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

I was in auto pilot and my plane was fired down!

+500

is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 127

Money session Jacoby Beaver

pip: 134 score: 0 is Player 1

XGID=-bB-BBB-BA--cB-----bbbbbAA:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances:	70.58% (G: 40.38% B: 2.57%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	29.42% (G: 7.85% B: 0.50%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	72.61% (G: 44.75% B: 2.34%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	27.39% (G: 7.51% B: 0.48%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:	+0.412
Double:	+1.686
Cubeful Equities
No Double:	+0.855 (-0.145)
Double/Take:	+1.485 (+0.485)
Double/Drop:	+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Drop
Rollout details
1300 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 9584 Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double:	± 0.011 (+0.844...+0.866)
Confidence Double:	± 0.026 (+1.459...+1.511)
Double Decision confidence:	100.0%
Take Decision confidence:	100.0%
Duration: 14 minutes 02 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

I made a nearly quintuple blunder here! I thought if I could have manage to make an anchor on acepoint, I would have a decent game. However, I had to think about the other side of the story. If I couldn't make an anchor, almost sure I would lose gammon. Also, anchoring doesn't mean I would be a favorite. I would be still trapped two (or even three) checkers behind five prime.

is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 127

Money session Jacoby Beaver

pip: 136 score: 0 is Player 1

XGID=-b-BBBB-BA--cB-----bbbbbAA:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances:	66.44% (G: 37.44% B: 1.99%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	33.56% (G: 8.70% B: 0.54%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	67.39% (G: 39.94% B: 2.08%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	32.61% (G: 8.19% B: 0.48%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:	+0.329
Double:	+1.362
Cubeful Equities
No Double:	+0.820 (-0.180)
Double/Take:	+1.124 (+0.124)
Double/Drop:	+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Drop
Rollout details
1298 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 9584 Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double:	± 0.019 (+0.801...+0.838)
Confidence Double:	± 0.030 (+1.094...+1.153)
Double Decision confidence:	100.0%
Take Decision confidence:	100.0%
Duration: 18 minutes 16 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

I shifted from two point to three point of my inner board. It is still a clear pass.

is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 125

Money session Jacoby Beaver

pip: 133 score: 0 is Player 1

XGID=-bB-BBB-BA--cB-----bbbbAbA:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances:	63.35% (G: 37.32% B: 1.58%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	36.65% (G: 10.76% B: 0.61%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	64.36% (G: 39.60% B: 1.46%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	35.64% (G: 10.46% B: 0.65%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:	+0.267
Double:	+1.173
Cubeful Equities
No Double:	+0.705 (-0.179)
Double/Take:	+0.885
Double/Drop:	+1.000 (+0.115)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
973 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 9584 Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double:	± 0.027 (+0.679...+0.732)
Confidence Double:	± 0.035 (+0.850...+0.919)
Double Decision confidence:	100.0%
Take Decision confidence:	100.0%
Duration: 10 minutes 32 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

Shifting from acepoint open to deucepoint make it clear take though.

Backgammon is an interesting game

I have never been board of playing BG. It has consistently given me new interesting positions, surpriseness and awareness.

is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 70

Money session Jacoby Beaver

pip: 86 score: 0 is Player 1

XGID=-ABBBBCB---------bbbbbbabA:1:1:1:22:0:0:3:0:10

to play 22

1.	XG Roller+	Bar/23* 6/4 3/1(2)	eq: -0.512
	Player: Opponent: 22.17% (G:4.06% B:0.06%) 77.83% (G:6.51% B:0.14%)
2.	XG Roller+	Bar/23* 7/5 7/3	eq: -0.643 (-0.131)
	Player: Opponent: 19.25% (G:2.82% B:0.14%) 80.75% (G:11.50% B:0.25%)
3.	XG Roller+	Bar/23* 7/5(2) 6/4	eq: -0.655 (-0.142)
	Player: Opponent: 18.61% (G:2.56% B:0.12%) 81.39% (G:10.93% B:0.23%)
4.	3 ply	Bar/23* 7/5 3/1(2)	eq: -0.691 (-0.179)
	Player: Opponent: 16.17% (G:2.66% B:0.07%) 83.83% (G:9.23% B:0.17%)
5.	3 ply	Bar/23* 5/3 5/1	eq: -0.692 (-0.180)
	Player: Opponent: 15.18% (G:1.77% B:0.03%) 84.82% (G:6.28% B:0.12%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

31 32 34 is key numbers. It would be even game after those rolls. It is much better than breaking bar point and hoping that something (unrealistic) good will happen.

Simple bear off

is akaisuisei score: 2 pip: 26

11 point match

pip: 36 score: 9 is mochy

XGID=----BBC------------ac-aa--:1:1:1:52:9:2:0:11:10

to play 52

1.	Rollout1	6/4 5/0ff	eq: -0.503
	Player: Opponent: 24.87% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 75.13% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf: ± 0.000 (-0.503...-0.503) Duration: 0.4 second
* 2.	Rollout1	5/0ff 4/2	eq: -0.525 (-0.022)
	Player: Opponent: 23.76% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 76.24% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf: ± 0.000 (-0.525...-0.525) Duration: 0.4 second
1 Truncated at 11 moves using 4 ply. 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 1341 Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

After 11 years of professional career, I still do not know how to play simple bear off. What a fish.
Black has a clear advantage and Yellow needs to roll something good. Yellow needs to prepare to roll something good. It is time to prepare for fours, not deuce.

is akaisuisei score: 4 pip: 139

11 point match

pip: 79 score: 9 is mochy

XGID=bCCBBCa-------b--Abbbb-bA-:1:1:1:54:9:4:0:11:10

to play 54

1.	Rollout1	17/8	eq: +0.064
	Player: Opponent: 55.84% (G:29.68% B:0.21%) 44.16% (G:4.41% B:0.13%) Conf: ± 0.012 (+0.052...+0.076) Duration: 44.4 seconds
* 2.	Rollout1	17/12 5/1	eq: -0.004 (-0.068)
	Player: Opponent: 53.36% (G:28.88% B:0.23%) 46.64% (G:5.92% B:0.20%) Conf: ± 0.014 (-0.018...+0.010) Duration: 39.4 seconds
1 Truncated at 11 moves using 4 ply. 544 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 1341 Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

I chose 17/12 5/1 with the thought that I would have more pick and pass numbers because I could use six as a picking number while two as a stepping up number. That is true to 64 63 61. What I missed here is that the importance of placing my spare as useful as possible.

-If I roll deuce in next shake, it would be much better to have a spare checker on five point and a lone checker closer to home board. It is much more flexible.

-Small numbers (11, 13, 14) do not allow me to kill my five and six.

-65 force me to move full eleven pips instead of only five with 17/8.(So that 17/8 is better for immediate 65)
You should not missed to see whole picture of the position.

is Kiyokazu Nishikawa score: 0 pip: 133

11 point match

pip: 133 score: 0 is Masayuki Mochizuki

XGID=-Ba-B-D-B---cC---cbcc-B---:0:0:1:65:0:0:0:11:10

to play 65

1.	Rollout1	22/11	eq: -0.340
	Player: Opponent: 40.74% (G:11.89% B:0.26%) 59.26% (G:16.61% B:0.62%) Conf: ± 0.014 (-0.354...-0.326) Duration: 2 minutes 53 seconds
* 2.	Rollout1	13/2*	eq: -0.442 (-0.102)
	Player: Opponent: 37.26% (G:11.22% B:0.12%) 62.74% (G:12.08% B:0.56%) Conf: ± 0.015 (-0.457...-0.427) Duration: 2 minutes 32 seconds
3.	XG Roller+	22/16 13/8	eq: -0.454 (-0.114)
	Player: Opponent: 37.97% (G:11.80% B:0.30%) 62.03% (G:20.47% B:0.78%)
4.	2 ply	8/3 8/2*	eq: -0.635 (-0.295)
	Player: Opponent: 32.34% (G:8.06% B:0.06%) 67.66% (G:14.44% B:0.60%)
5.	1 ply	8/2* 6/1	eq: -0.710 (-0.370)
	Player: Opponent: 31.09% (G:6.89% B:0.07%) 68.91% (G:14.10% B:0.58%)
1 Truncated at 11 moves using 4 ply. 290 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 9586 Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 147

Money session Jacoby Beaver

pip: 142 score: 0 is Player 1

XGID=aaBBA-BBB---a---bbce-C-A--:1:-1:1:53:0:0:3:0:10

to play 53

1.	XG Roller+	23/15	eq: -0.108
	Player: Opponent: 50.37% (G:17.97% B:0.93%) 49.63% (G:11.40% B:0.49%)
* 2.	XG Roller+	7/4 7/2	eq: -0.302 (-0.194)
	Player: Opponent: 43.22% (G:16.46% B:0.75%) 56.78% (G:12.15% B:0.50%)
3.	XG Roller+	8/3 7/4	eq: -0.345 (-0.237)
	Player: Opponent: 42.19% (G:16.80% B:0.74%) 57.81% (G:13.92% B:0.61%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

Quite difficult for me.

The need to avoid "Double Jeopardy" is rarely exist

(Special Thanks to Karam Ashoo, who kindly corrected my english.I highlighted my mistake for a future study (of english)).

is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 91

Money session Jacoby Beaver

pip: 54 score: 0 is Player 1

XGID=-CCCCbB-----A---a--bbbbbb-:1:-1:1:62:0:0:3:0:10

to play 62

1.	Rollout1	12/6 2/0ff	eq: +0.921
	Player: Opponent: 95.55% (G:2.17% B:0.01%) 4.45% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf: ± 0.001 (+0.920...+0.922) Duration: 43.6 seconds
2.	Rollout1	12/4	eq: +0.910 (-0.011)
	Player: Opponent: 95.38% (G:1.01% B:0.00%) 4.62% (G:0.02% B:0.00%) Conf: ± 0.001 (+0.909...+0.911) Duration: 14.6 seconds
3.	XG Roller+	12/6 4/2	eq: +0.905 (-0.016)
	Player: Opponent: 94.90% (G:1.98% B:0.01%) 5.10% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
4.	XG Roller+	12/6 3/1	eq: +0.901 (-0.020)
	Player: Opponent: 94.66% (G:2.03% B:0.01%) 5.34% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
1 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 1341 Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

I liked Kit Woolsey's article about Avoiding Double Jeopardy July-August issue 1995. Avoiding Double Jeopardy means a play that stripping the six point and leaving 6-1 and 5-1 instead of having three checkers on six point and leaving 6-5 only. ADJ is actually better is from the perspective of minimizing a shot chance in the long run.
However, Kit investigated lot lots of positions and conclude concluded that the need to avoid Double Jeopardy is very rare because of race potential and missing a chance to win Gs.

Today I revisited the positions provided by Kit and can conclude that it is even more rarer rarer than he might have thought. Position above is from Kit's article and he showed it as an example of where ADJ is right.Extreme gammon thinks the opposite. Even here ADJ is not right simply because he couldn't win as many gammons as he would with 2/off.

Even so, you should be paying attention to the score. In double match point or sort of close to it, it could easily be right to play 12/4 and ADJ, all in all, it is the safest play in terms of leaving a shot. A position below is a good example.

is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 102

1 point match

pip: 54 score: 0 is Player 1

XGID=-CCCCcB-----A------bbbbbb-:1:-1:1:26:0:0:0:1:10

to play 26

1.	Rollout1	12/4	eq: +0.920
	Player: Opponent: 95.99% (G:26.00% B:0.00%) 4.01% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf: ± 0.001 (+0.919...+0.921) Duration: 13.9 seconds
2.	Rollout1	12/6 2/0ff	eq: +0.913 (-0.006)
	Player: Opponent: 95.67% (G:30.81% B:0.01%) 4.33% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf: ± 0.001 (+0.912...+0.914) Duration: 35.9 seconds
3.	XG Roller	12/6 4/2	eq: +0.922 (+0.002)
	Player: Opponent: 96.09% (G:5.75% B:0.01%) 3.91% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
4.	XG Roller	12/6 3/1	eq: +0.920
	Player: Opponent: 96.01% (G:5.26% B:0.01%) 3.99% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
1 1332 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 1341 Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

Also if two point is empty, then 6/4 would be right. It is just the safest and 4/2 won't gain as much as 2/off would.

is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 102

Money session Jacoby Beaver

pip: 56 score: 0 is Player 1

XGID=-D-DDcB-----A------bbbbbb-:1:-1:1:26:0:0:3:0:10

to play 26

1.	Rollout1	12/4	eq: +0.958
	Player: Opponent: 95.87% (G:4.77% B:0.00%) 4.13% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf: ± 0.001 (+0.957...+0.959) Duration: 12.4 seconds
2.	Rollout1	12/6 4/2	eq: +0.945 (-0.013)
	Player: Opponent: 95.14% (G:5.16% B:0.00%) 4.86% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf: ± 0.001 (+0.944...+0.946) Duration: 34.2 seconds
1 1508 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 1341 Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21