2010/12/18

+500

is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 127
                         
Money session
Jacoby Beaver
                          pip: 134
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=-bB-BBB-BA--cB-----bbbbbAA:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
  Player Winning Chances: 70.58% (G: 40.38% B: 2.57%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 29.42% (G: 7.85% B: 0.50%)
Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 72.61% (G: 44.75% B: 2.34%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 27.39% (G: 7.51% B: 0.48%)
 
Cubeless Equities
No Double:+0.412
Double:+1.686
 
Cubeful Equities
No Double:+0.855 (-0.145)
Double/Take:+1.485 (+0.485)
Double/Drop:+1.000
 
Best Cube action: Double / Drop
 
Rollout details
1300 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 9584
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
 
Confidence No Double: ± 0.011 (+0.844...+0.866)
Confidence Double: ± 0.026 (+1.459...+1.511)
 
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
 
Duration: 14 minutes 02 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

I made a nearly quintuple blunder here! I thought if I could have manage to make an anchor on acepoint, I would have a decent game. However, I had to think about the other side of the story. If I couldn't make an anchor, almost sure I would lose gammon. Also, anchoring doesn't mean I would be a favorite. I would be still trapped two (or even three) checkers behind five prime.


is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 127
                         
Money session
Jacoby Beaver
                          pip: 136
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=-b-BBBB-BA--cB-----bbbbbAA:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
  Player Winning Chances: 66.44% (G: 37.44% B: 1.99%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 33.56% (G: 8.70% B: 0.54%)
Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 67.39% (G: 39.94% B: 2.08%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 32.61% (G: 8.19% B: 0.48%)
 
Cubeless Equities
No Double:+0.329
Double:+1.362
 
Cubeful Equities
No Double:+0.820 (-0.180)
Double/Take:+1.124 (+0.124)
Double/Drop:+1.000
 
Best Cube action: Double / Drop
 
Rollout details
1298 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 9584
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
 
Confidence No Double: ± 0.019 (+0.801...+0.838)
Confidence Double: ± 0.030 (+1.094...+1.153)
 
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
 
Duration: 18 minutes 16 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

I shifted from two point to three point of my inner board. It is still a clear pass.


is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 125
                         
Money session
Jacoby Beaver
                          pip: 133
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=-bB-BBB-BA--cB-----bbbbAbA:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
  Player Winning Chances: 63.35% (G: 37.32% B: 1.58%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 36.65% (G: 10.76% B: 0.61%)
Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 64.36% (G: 39.60% B: 1.46%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 35.64% (G: 10.46% B: 0.65%)
 
Cubeless Equities
No Double:+0.267
Double:+1.173
 
Cubeful Equities
No Double:+0.705 (-0.179)
Double/Take:+0.885
Double/Drop:+1.000 (+0.115)
 
Best Cube action: Double / Take
 
Rollout details
973 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 9584
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
 
Confidence No Double: ± 0.027 (+0.679...+0.732)
Confidence Double: ± 0.035 (+0.850...+0.919)
 
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
 
Duration: 10 minutes 32 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

Shifting from acepoint open to deucepoint make it clear take though.

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