Mochy's backgammon study

Another charity backgammon!

2011-04-05T10:29:00.001+09:00

WBF - Turkey hold a donation project (combined with tournament) in Istanbul to raise the fund for Japan's earthquake and tsunami victims.
I would like to say thank you to the friends in Turkey. Also special thanks to Arda - tournament director.

I will send a signatured board (by many Japanese players) to the biggest donor there and play one hour backgammon match (with tutoring) with the winner.

Charity backgammon tournament has been held in many countries now. "Backgammon is the cruellest game, but players are not!"

500,000yen is donated

2011-04-01T22:37:00.001+09:00

On 31st of March, I went to post office to donate 500,000yen (approx $6300) to Japan's RED CROSS.
500,000 yen include all collected donation from my project. (plus matching donation from me and my wife)
Play65 successfully held charity tournament on their server and raised 540 euro as well. They kindly allow us to transfer the money using their softwear, which was probablly the easiest way to send me money if donors have an money account.

DBgF will hold a charity tournament in chritiania on this sunday. They also hold a charity board tournament in Nordic Open as well. Besides that they opened an account where members can donate the money.

Thank you once again for all donors from all over the world!
MOCHY

P.S.

Those who concernd that RED CROSS might charge too much administration fee, it is probablly not true.

Japanese Red Cross opened specific window for victims of earthquake and
tsunami this year. 100% of the fund raised through this window goes to
victims. It simply devided by a number of victims and eventually sent to
them.
Handring fee and employment cost will be coverd by tax.
So Red Cross doesn't even count the funds as their income therefore they
couldn't use part of it as expenses.
This specific windows is totally different from usual donations, so
there is no worry for it being wasted to salary or some other expenses.

Mochy's "Matching" Donation project ended

2011-03-18T15:31:00.004+09:00

My donation project ended this noon.
I have got 115 donors, played 102 matches with 97 players (6matches are still playing on Dailygammon) and raised about $7000 including my $1500.
I don't know exact amount of all the funds, because 60% of the player chose local RED CROSS which goes to victims of Japan's earthquake as a receiver.
Total funds I received is 3192.72USD and it will be donated on 31st of March along with my 1500USD in equivalent japanese yen.
I will study and search for the best organization to donate, but most probablly I will use Japan's Red Cross. I will show a receipt here.

The reaction to my project from backgammon community was fast and warmful.
They are all sympathized with us and concerned my safety. Even people I have never met before sent me a donation through paypal. Some of them kindly offer me not to play simbolic 3p match so as to have more time with others.
These three days is memorable for me because I played most matches (102 matches have been played) and I talked with more than 100 people.

Thank you so much to all.

Although I ended this project, donation should be continued.

As I wrote yesterday, WBA and Play65 hold a charity backgammon tounament.

WBA and Play65 have decided to contribute their share to help the victims of the catastrophe.
An online backgammon charity tournament will be held on 29th of March 2011 at 20:00 GMT. The winner will be awarded with a WBA Anniversary Board (limited edition) with the serial number 113 (a date not to forget).
Entry fee is 10€ only with no rake. All entry fees collected will be donated to UNICEF to support Japanese children in distress.
http://www.bgonline.org/forums/webbbs_config.pl?read=91675
Here is a useful link for the donation.
http://livingsocial.com/redcross (they will match your donation)

http://www.google.com/crisisresponse/japanquake2011.html (very quick)

You can also send me funds through paypal. (mochy@backgammon.gr.jp)

2nd day is over

2011-03-16T21:27:00.006+09:00

Thank you for the donation.

I am just amazed how fast backgammon community reacts to this tragedy.
Everytime I login to bg servers , some windows pop up and saying "I will donate to victims of Japan".
Sometimes I have to play two games while talking to thrid as I don't want make them wait. Bytheway I still try to play my best game.
The best story I had today is about famous tournament director.
He is, not only one of the earliest respondes to my donation project, but also trying to
create live charity tournament in his hometown munich. He quickly realized that live charity tournament needs permission from authrity and lot of procedure, so he make it happen in Play 65 as I paste below.

WBA and Play65 have decided to contribute their share to help the victims of the catastrophe.
An online backgammon charity tournament will be held on 29th of March 2011 at 20:00 GMT. The winner will be awarded with a WBA Anniversary Board (limited edition) with the serial number 113 (a date not to forget).
Entry fee is 10€ only with no rake. All entry fees collected will be donated to UNICEF to support Japanese children in distress.
http://www.bgonline.org/forums/webbbs_config.pl?read=91675

This is not end of the story. Yesterday he and his neighbors cooked 50 litters of miso soup (Japanese famous soup) to sell in a church. He borrowed some tools from a restaurant. Local food store supplied ingredient. He cooked and advertised it. 130 cups are sold for 3euro. All money is donated to charity.
He is a man.
I want to say thank you on behalf of Japanese People. Thank you Chiva..

As I am awke more than 24hours now, I need to rest. Please re-start in 8 hours , like 21:00 in Japan Time.
You could send us funds using paypal to mochy@backgammon.gr.jp. I will respond all of you by email, but forgive me , it might take some time. Thank you for the support.

Mochy's "Matching" Donation - Day 1 is over

2011-03-16T01:48:00.003+09:00

I played more than 40 matches in Day 1.

I played 16 hours , starting from 10:00AM to 3:40AM.
A lot of people actually donate much more than $10. Thank you for your co-operation.
Warmest story I had today is from Play65. An unknown guy started to talk to me.
He wasn't good at english but said like "Play 3p $10" " I bad english"" I give $10".
Ovbiously some of his friend translate this blog to his language.
I am heard that this project is translated into atleast Danish and French.

Chiva started charity tournament in P65 too.
http://www.facebook.com/notes/chiva-k-tafazzoli/help-us-to-help-japan-wba-play65-online-charity-tournament/10150124568668826

"NYGAMMONLORD" on GridGammon put this project in his information and
He decided to donate his lesson fee from backgammon coach. (that is his job)
I Thank all for your help in many ways.

I am looking for more donors in Day 2. See you in 10hours.

Donors list

2011-03-14T16:00:00.053+09:00

-Breaking News-

*Now PlayWSOB will also match any $10 donation to any given on playwsob.
You can transfer donation to me from "Tools" -> "Transfer Funds" Real name Masayuki Mochizuki, Nickname "bgmochy2" in PlayWSOB.

*Play65 will not take any rake from the match resgined on purpose by my opponent to send his donation to me.

*You can send your donation by a way of Paypal (mochy@backgammon.gr.jp) however they will take some commission.

*Daily Gammon is added to available servers.

The amount of money beside name is for who transferred me money.
Players who didn't transfer to me made a donation in their country. I thank both.

Name /Country/ Servers / Result (from my point of view)

1, ForestFriend / Russia / Play65 / X - He even resigned me $20 for his donation.
2, Gentloman / Armenia / Play65 / O - Armenia got a huge earthquake in 1988 too. $10
3, Skuijs / Netherlands / Play65 / X - A lot of turn arounds, very exciting games. $18.92
4, konfro / Sweden / Play65 / O - You should visit his nice restaurant in stockholm! $13.9
5, fneumark / Argentina / Play65 / X -Nice guy from Argentina! $20
6, tigroid / Russia / Play65 / - We didn't play. $100
7, HTanaka / Japan / Grid Gammon / OXXXOOOOXOXO - My special guest from Sapporo !! $400
8, CubeRoute / UK / Grid Gammon / X
9, IRUNLIKEMOON / Denmark / Party Gammon / O - My friend in denmark. $200
10, bgnori / Japan / PlayWSOB / X - my senior student in highschool
11, XristosB52 / Greece / Play65 / X $50.26
12, Lenus / Georgia / Grid Gammon / X - Georgian friend from last year
13, Dubrovnik / Croatia / Grid Gammon / X - He help backgammon community a lot.TY
14, turtletrader / US / Grid Gammon / X
15, Player55 / US / Grid Gammon / X
16, jyadoudesu / Japan / Grid Gammon / O
17, Cheryl226 / US / Grid Gammon / O
18, elmoisgod / US&Japan / Grid Gammon / O $200
19, Aldebaran111 / Germany / PlayWSOB / X　10euro
20, eaglerjp / US / Grid Gammon / X
21, superlady / US / Grid Gammon / O
22, fanar / US&Israel / Grid Gammon / X
23, Peever / US / Grid Gammon / O
24, GrafDracula / Germany / Grid Gammon / X
25, KaramAshoo / US / Grid Gammon / O
26, philsimborg / US / Safe Harbor Games / X
27, Jack24777 / Monaco / Grid Gammon / O
28, zmilan / Hungary / Play65 / X - Prime member of hungarian BG. $12
29, VIEExtreme / Canada / Grid Gammon / O
30, salukido / Japan / Grid Gammon / X - President of Back-Gammon.TV
31, dicequeen / Germany / PlayWSOB / O - bodybuilder from munich! 10euro
32, EasyTake / Denmark / Grid Gammon / O - former world champ !
33, NineteenHockey / ? / Safe Harbor Games / O
34, akbaytug / Turkey / Grid Gammon / X bayblitz and he donates $40
35, Schigolch / Germany / Grid Gammon / X - $25
36, vorobei14 / Moldova / Play65 / O - $10
37, STEAMSAX / US / Grid Gammon / O - Transferred thru TMG 40euro
38, PROTaylorANN / US / Grid Gammon / O
39, Martin / Germany / Grid Gammon / X - he played 1.6!
40, Kaoru / Japan / Grid Gammon / O - one of the developers of GNUBG
41, mattblackmatt / UK? / DailyGammon / - match is on going
42, likesbg / UK / DailyGammon/ - match is on going
43, py199 / Japan / Grid Gammon / X
44, Arag / US / Grid Gammon / O
45, PRO_Sunny / Canada / Safe Harbor games / O
46, Humke / German / TMG / - He just donated without playing. 100euro.
47, doublesnow / US / Grid Gammon / O 50euro
48, mikelupu / Ireland / Play65 / O $27.92
49, DirkJansen / German / Grid Gammon / X 30euro
50, marbs2 / US / Grid Gammon / X
51, playyy / France / Grid Gammon / O
52, newton / Turkey / Grid Gammon / X
53, Raj / UK / Grid Gammon / X
54, bandera / Croatia / Grid Gammon / O
55, Antoinette / US / Grid Gammon / O $100
56, nortyno / Norway / Play65 / O $34.7
57, wells / US / Grid Gammon / O $300
58, Mellyfish / UK / Grid Gammon / - She just donates $300 and go for coffee !
59, Ladypeppurr / Canada / Grid Gammon / O
60, playme / Denmark / PlayWSOB / OO
61, kapiti / New Zealand / Grid Gammon / X - NZ was also hit by earthquake recently!
62, PRO_Rising / Lebanon / Safe Harbor Games / - We didn't play. $22
63, extralargecat / ? / DailyGammon / match is still going
64, bohstom / Ireland / DailyGammon / match is still going
65, Samzilla / Canada / PlayWSOB / O 10CAD
66, JustSomGirl / US / Grid Gammon
67, nice2cyou / US / Grid Gammon
68, miso22 / Japan / Grid Gammon / X
69, Noctogammon / US / Grid Gammon / O - We played 5 point match ($500)
70, magicone / ? / DailyGammon / - match is still going on
71, SSupercrasch / Sweden / Safe Harbor Games / X
72, Ismail Sabri Buyuksoy / Turkey / Grid Gammon / O $100
73, Katja / Norway / - / - We didn't play the match. $100
74, abstract / US / Grid Gammon / X
75, EU_AT_Richi / Turkey&Austria / Safe Harbor Games / X
76, Babelsberg03 / Germany / PlayWSOB / O - 20euro
77, Henrik Bang / Denmark / PlayWSOB / - We didn't play the match. 70euro
78, snowflakes55 / Austria / Grid Gammon / X This world class player promised that he would donate 10euro for each blunder then he tried to make many blunders on purpose. His error rate was over16. Thank you!
79, Trojan / UK / Grid Gammon / X
80, nightmare73 / US / Grid Gammon / X
81, Linda / Norway / PlayWSOB / - I am a member of team Linda. 40euro
82, Peer / Germany / ?? / I am going to play new member of Berlin BG club. 50euro
83, Kifaru / UK / Grid Gammon / O
84, Smoke_Zilla / US / Safe Harbor Games / X
85, Mislav / Croatia / Grid Gammon / O
86, EU_IT_danrot / Italy / Safe Harbor Games / O
87, zramiz / Bosnia-Herzegovina / Grid Gammon / X - President of BG federation in Bosnia-Herzegovina
88, MRinPeoria / US / Grid Gammon / O
89, Sally Larsen / Denmark / PlayWSOB / - We didn't play. 10 euro
90, tomcom / Germany / Daily Gammon / match is still going on 10euro
91, kutips / Norway / Play65 / we didn't play $27.76
92, zigi3350 / Japan / Grid Gammon / X
93, dice_hitomi / Japan / Play65 / O
94, mogulero / US / Grid Gammon / - We didn't play
95, shun / Japan / Grid Gammon / X
96, killingkid / Denmark / Grid Gammon / X
97, bugger / US / Grid Gammon / X
98, Sean Casey / Ireland / Grid Gammon / O
99, Jawego / Swiss / Play65 / We didn't play $27.88
100, TheWheel / US / Grid Gammon / O
101, audreytautou / Israel / Play65 / $25
102, Sam64 / Japan / Grid Gammon / O
103, sukapyon / Japan / Grid Gammon / O $12
104, hockeyfan / US / Grid Gammon / X
105, (Anonymous) / Anonymous / Play65 / We didn't play $50
106, DepRus97 / Russia / Play65 / X $10
107, chiemi / Japan / Grid Gammon / We haven't played yet
108, BackInBlack / Germany / Grid Gammon / O $33
109, Dickenz / Brasil / Grid Gammon / X
110, London / UK / Grid Gammon / X
111, Carlotos / Spain / Grid Gammon / X 11euro
112, billcphil / Ireland / Grid Gammon / O
113, Eva Zizkova / unknown/ we didn't play 10euro
114, Marcel Mander / unknown / we didn't play $42.94
115, Milan Kovacic / unknown / we didn't play $14.11
116, adamV / US /
117, Karsten Nielsen / Denmark / TMG / 145.38 euro
118, Carol Joy Cole / US / $100
119, nkeyno / Japan / $400
120, shimohei / Japan / 9,000yen
121, Steen Gronbech / Denmark / 100euro

Mochy's Matching Donation Project

2011-03-14T13:59:00.018+09:00

Between Tuesday and Thursday (March 15-17), I will play as many matches as possible on the following backgammon servers: GridGammon, Safe Harbor Games, PlayWSOB, DailyGammon and Play65. They will all be three-point matches, played for no stakes, unless the opponent wants to bet. I will accept anyone. Novice and
Beginners are all welcome to play. You will have the rare opportunity to play the #1 backgammon giant in your home.

I am asking all who play me to donate $10 (or more) to victims of the earthquake and tsunami in Japan, regardless of the outcome of the match. Each player can decide where to make the donation. (It would be very helpful if somebody would please provide the information on how and where donations can be made from each country.)
I will also donate $10 for every match I play. This is the reason I am calling my project “Matching Donation.” Alternatively, you could purchase one of our backgammon lecture videos for $20 from Back-Gammon.TV. We will donate 50% of the sale to an earthquake/tsunami charity.

The names of those who participate will be listed here and
Back-Gammon.TV website, along with the result of the match.
I hope to play at least 100 matches this week during the three-day period.
Thank you very much for your kind support from all over the world,

Mochy

My nick name on the servers are;
Grid Gammon: mochy
Safe Harbor Games: mochy
PlayWSOB: bgmochy2
Play65: chocolate

The easiest way to contact me is using a chat feature in the servers.
PlayWSOB doesn't have a chat so you need to contact me via skype.(bgmochy is my skype name)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
USA
To make a donation to The Red Cross, visit redcross.org or text REDCROSS to 90999
   to donate $10 from your phone.

   Operation USA appeals for donations of funds from the public. The organization also calls
   for bulk corporate donations of health care materials, which it will ship to the region
   from its base in the Port of Los Angeles. You can make donations online at http://www.opusa.org/ ,
   by phone at 1.800.678.7255 or, by check made out to Operation USA, 3617 Hayden Ave, Suite
   A, Culver City, CA 90232.

   The Japan America Society of Southern California, with other Japanese and
   Japanese-American organizations in the region, established a relief fund. Checks made out
   to the ・011 Japan Earthquake Relief Fund・can be sent to the Japan America Society of
   Southern California, 345 S. Figueroa St., Suite M-1, Los Angeles, CA 90071-1004. Secure
   online credit card donations can also be made at http://www.jas-socal.org/.

   Catholic Relief Services is also stepping up and taking donations. Sean Callahan, CRS
   executive vice president, said Friday, 展e know from 2004 the devastating impact that
   these tsunamis can have.・

   CRS is working with a partner, Caritas Japan, to assess where to put resources. To donate
   by phone: 1-877-HELP-CRS. To make a donation on line, go to http://www.crs.org/.

   To write and mail a check:
   Catholic Relief Services
   P.O. Box 17090
   Baltimore, Maryland 21203-7090
   Memo portion of check: Japanese Tsunami
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
UK
Visit http://www.redcross.org.uk/Donate-Now/Make-a-single-donation/Japan-Tsunami-Appeal
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Croatian
   Your donation to the Croatian Red Cross will
   send to support the humanitarian work of
   Japanese Red Cross. You can help:
   payment to the bank account of the Croatian Red
   Cross 2340009-1511555516 reference number 02
   reference to the donor phone: 060 90 11 (6,15
   EUR, VAT included)
   or on-line donation to http://www.hck.hr/
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Germany
http://www.drk.de/weltweit/asien-nahost/japan-hilfe-nach-erdbeben.html
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sweden
http://www.redcross.se/stod-oss/fler-satt-att-stodja/ge-en-gava/?purpose=1465&amount=200
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Australia
https://www.redcross.org.au/Donations/onlineDonations.asp

To all my friends

2011-03-14T00:55:00.001+09:00

I thank all my friends for your concern, but I am more than fine now.
I drunk five beers and played $1 chouette today with three of my friends. Made two blunders. A lot of fun and laugh - just a beautiful sunday. Sorry, but this is what I can do besides donation.Things what victims really need is donation. Please go to groupon site or other service to send your good will. Thank you again for your kind & warm messages anyway.
Here is a position 1 from chouette today.

is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 127

Money session
Jacoby Beaver

pip: 141
score: 0

is Player 1

XGID=---BCbBABB--b----c-cb-cBA-:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10

on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

Position 2

is Player 1

score: 0
pip: 153

Money session
Jacoby Beaver

pip: 161
score: 0

is Player 2

XGID=aA-a--DBBa--bB--Bbbdb---B-:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10

on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

1st WSOB HEADS-UP CHAMPIONSHIP - post match quote ANALYZED

2011-02-14T23:14:00.003+09:00

This post is a reply post to this post.

1st position
1st match. Black(Jurgen) is leading 7-0/11p and on roll. Cube action?

is orlowski_go_vegan

score: 7
pip: 117

11 point match

pip: 158
score: 0

is bgmochy2

XGID=a---BAD-BA--bB----bebc-BA-:0:0:-1:00:0:7:0:11:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances:	66.24% (G: 34.19% B: 3.48%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	33.76% (G: 5.80% B: 0.25%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	66.29% (G: 35.39% B: 3.64%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	33.71% (G: 5.80% B: 0.25%)

Cubeless Equities
No Double:	+0.726
Double:	+1.285

Cubeful Equities
No Double:	+0.713
*Double/Take:	+0.503 (-0.210)
Double/Drop:	+1.000 (+0.287)

Best Cube action: No Double / Take

Rollout details
650 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 44 Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

Confidence No Double:	± 0.018 (+0.695...+0.731)
Confidence Double:	± 0.028 (+0.475...+0.531)

Double Decision confidence:	100.0%
Take Decision confidence:	100.0%

Duration: 6 minutes 21 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

[Thanks to Bob Wachtel who kindly edited this 1st position analysis]

When you are trailing by this much in a match, you only need to see a few realistic paths to victory to be able to take the cube.
In this case, Black (Jurgen) might dance or roll 26 or 24 from the bar. If that happens, I would have about a 40% chance to win the game, and would very close to a redouble already (it may already be one). In fact, redoubling would have another benefit: while magnifying the effect of my own gammons, it would exactly nullify the value of Jurgen's gammons! Even though the odds of my gammoning Jurgen from this position are small, the payoff is huge: and it is this outcome, rather than the negative one of my being gammoned, upon which I should focus.
Even if worst comes to worst - say he hits and I dance - I will still have a well-timed deuce-point game.
Actually Jurgen doubled too early. He would have had a good cube after a hit-and-poor-entering sequence.

2nd position
Later in the same game, White(Mochy) holding a cube on two. Cube action?

is orlowski_go_vegan

score: 7
pip: 130

11 point match

pip: 167
score: 0

is bgmochy2

XGID=a--aBAC-BA--bB---AbdbbABa-:1:1:1:00:0:7:0:11:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances:	55.15% (G: 18.53% B: 0.81%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	44.85% (G: 19.59% B: 1.58%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	55.66% (G: 20.05% B: 1.03%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	44.34% (G: 20.50% B: 1.99%)

Cubeless Equities
No Redouble:	+0.176
Redouble:	+1.188

Cubeful Equities
No Redouble:	+0.910 (-0.090)
*Redouble/Take:	+1.188 (+0.188)
Redouble/Drop:	+1.000

Best Cube action: Redouble / Drop

Rollout details
327 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 9584 Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

Confidence No Redouble:	± 0.015 (+0.895...+0.925)
Confidence Redouble:	± 0.022 (+1.166...+1.211)

Double Decision confidence:	100.0%
Take Decision confidence:	100.0%

Duration: 4 minutes 02 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

Black's raw take point is about 30% and my gammon price is almost 1. That means this situation is similar to 2away - 4away cube action except take point is 10% higher.
I am not sure whether take or not for 2away - 4away so it is a huge pass at this score.

3rd position
2nd match. Jurgen (Black) is on roll. Match is tied at 2-2/11p. Cube action?

is orlowski_go_vegan

score: 2
pip: 15

11 point match

pip: 45
score: 2

is bgmochy2

XGID=-B-BB-B----------A-----am-:1:-1:-1:00:2:2:0:11:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances:	80.53% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	19.47% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	81.68% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	18.32% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)

Cubeless Equities
No Redouble:	+0.599
Redouble:	+1.316

Cubeful Equities
No Redouble:	+0.885 (-0.115)
*Redouble/Take:	+1.217 (+0.217)
Redouble/Drop:	+1.000

Best Cube action: Redouble / Drop

Rollout details
2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 9584 Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

Confidence No Redouble:	± 0.002 (+0.883...+0.887)
Confidence Redouble:	± 0.004 (+1.213...+1.221)

Double Decision confidence:	100.0%
Take Decision confidence:	100.0%

Duration: 1.5 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

I calculated my wastege as 9 pips but infact it is 10.5 pips and this 1.5 pips leads me making horrible mistake here.(1pip compenasate about 3% in this length of the race.) I need to re-study about wastege.

4th potision.
3rd match. Jurgen (Black) is trailing 6-8/11p and on roll but he is on the bar. Cube action?

is orlowski_go_vegan

score: 6
pip: 153

11 point match

pip: 58
score: 8

is bgmochy2

XGID=aDbEbAC-B----------bbbbb--:0:0:-1:00:8:6:0:11:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances:	65.99% (G: 13.86% B: 0.57%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	34.01% (G: 18.50% B: 1.50%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	66.78% (G: 17.48% B: 0.78%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	33.22% (G: 18.78% B: 4.41%)

Cubeless Equities
No Double:	+0.202
Double:	+0.698

Cubeful Equities
No Double:	+0.457 (-0.218)
*Double/Take:	+0.675
Double/Drop:	+1.000 (+0.325)

Best Cube action: Double / Take

Rollout details
854 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 44 Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

Confidence No Double:	± 0.016 (+0.441...+0.472)
Confidence Double:	± 0.032 (+0.643...+0.706)

Double Decision confidence:	100.0%
Take Decision confidence:	100.0%

Duration: 17 minutes 22 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

Black will miss with 17 numbers including 9 dances and anti-joker 44.

SORRY THIS POST IS NOT FINISHED YET. I WILL WRITE IT AGAIN SOON>

I never understand this

2011-02-13T20:52:00.000+09:00

I never understand what is the best play and why. Any ideas?

is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 34

Money session
Jacoby Beaver

pip: 134
score: 0

is Player 1

XGID=--BBBBC------------c-BcBg-:1:1:1:32:0:0:3:0:10

to play 32

Rollout¹

21/16

eq: -0.683

Player:
Opponent:

33.66% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
66.34% (G:47.82% B:0.37%)

Conf: ± 0.008 (-0.691...-0.675)
Duration: 58.8 seconds

Rollout¹

23/20 6/4

eq: -0.741 (-0.059)

Player:
Opponent:

33.61% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
66.39% (G:53.07% B:0.21%)

Conf: ± 0.007 (-0.748...-0.734)
Duration: 53.0 seconds

XG Roller+

21/18 6/4

eq: -0.728 (-0.046)

Player:
Opponent:

32.18% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
67.82% (G:48.81% B:0.62%)

¹ Truncated at 11 moves using 3 ply.
655 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 44
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

1st WSOB HEADS-UP CHAMPIONSHIP - post match quote

2011-02-12T11:41:00.006+09:00

AGGGGH!

1st WSOB HEADS-UP CHAMPIONSHIP in PlayWSOB was over and I was lucky to triumph in the war against current #27 Backgammon Giant Jürgen Orlowski (though he is deserved to be better ranking).
The match was commentated by Paul Weaver and Chris Bray so thet kibitzers could enjoy world class games with analysis by world class lecturers. I would like to thank them again here.

Jurgen played very well. I thought he was the best player I had played in 2011 except Falafel.
Whenever I play backgammon against human, they always make obvious mistakes and that make me feel confident and comfortable. However, Jurgen did the oppsoite - I couldn't point out his mistake - so I even chatted "I don't like this opponent" in the game as a joke.

It wasn't easy matches for me also because I had to start the match at 23:00 in my time and ended in almost 4:00 in the morning. (We played two matches per day but I made a lot of comments during the game - it made a match much longer than usual) So I and my wife celebrate my win with coffee and toast in the morning instead of champagne and a dinner.

Anyway - I am very happy to be 1st HEADS-UP CHAMPION at PlayWSOB and looking for a new challenger in 2nd HEADS-UP CHAMPIONSHIP.

I am going to show some key cube actions from all four matches here.
We made a big blunder almost every position shown below. The reason why it was so difficult was that the score is lopsided. It changes cube action drastically.

1st position
1st match. Black(Jurgen) is leading 7-0/11p and on roll. Cube action?

is orlowski_go_vegan

score: 7
pip: 117

11 point match

pip: 158
score: 0

is bgmochy2

XGID=a---BAD-BA--bB----bebc-BA-:0:0:-1:00:0:7:0:11:10

on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

2nd position.
Later in the same game, White(Mochy) holding a cube on two. Cube action?

is orlowski_go_vegan

score: 7
pip: 130

11 point match

pip: 167
score: 0

is bgmochy2

XGID=a--aBAC-BA--bB---AbdbbABa-:1:1:1:00:0:7:0:11:10

on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

3rd position.
2nd match. Jurgen (Black) is on roll. Match is tied at 2-2/11p. Cube action?

is orlowski_go_vegan

score: 2
pip: 15

11 point match

pip: 45
score: 2

is bgmochy2

XGID=-B-BB-B----------A-----am-:1:-1:-1:00:2:2:0:11:10

on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

(One roll earlier, the position was this. White (Mochy) was playing for Gammon!!!)

is orlowski_go_vegan

score: 2
pip: 35

11 point match

pip: 48
score: 2

is bgmochy2

XGID=-B-BBaB-------------A--am-:1:-1:-1:55:2:2:0:11:10

to play 55

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

4th potision.
3rd match. Jurgen (Black) is trailing 6-8/11p and on roll but he is on the bar. Cube action?

is orlowski_go_vegan

score: 6
pip: 153

11 point match

pip: 58
score: 8

is bgmochy2

XGID=aDbEbAC-B----------bbbbb--:0:0:-1:00:8:6:0:11:10

on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

5th position.
Black (Jurgen) is on roll. Match is tied at 2-2/11p. Cube action?

is orlowski_go_vegan

score: 2
pip: 119

11 point match

pip: 142
score: 2

is bgmochy2

XGID=---BbBCBA---aC-a-bbc--AbbA:0:0:-1:00:2:2:0:11:10

on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

6th position.
4th match. Jurgen (Black) is leading 8-2/11p and on roll. Cube action ?

is orlowski_go_vegan

score: 8
pip: 128

11 point match

pip: 116
score: 2

is bgmochy2

XGID=---BbaEBCB-------bbbbbb-A-:0:0:-1:00:2:8:0:11:10

on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

7th position.
Later in the same game. Black (Jurgen) broke a full prime. White is on roll and holding two cube. Cube action?

is orlowski_go_vegan

score: 8
pip: 124

11 point match

pip: 116
score: 2

is bgmochy2

XGID=---BabEBCB-------abbcbb-A-:1:1:1:00:2:8:0:11:10

on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

Answers and analyses will be posted in 48 hours. Comments are welcome as always.

These positions are taken from 1st WSOB HEADS-UP CHAMPIONSHIP - Mochy vs Jurgen Orlowski.
You can download the match from URL below. The result of the match was L-W-W-W from my point of view.
1st http://dl.dropbox.com/u/3098363/orlowski_go_vegan%20-%20bgmochy2%2017047782.mat (Mochy 3.8 - Jurgen 4.3)
2nd http://dl.dropbox.com/u/3098363/bgmochy2%20-%20orlowski_go_vegan%2017049279.mat (Mochy 2.8 - Jurgen 2.7)
3rd http://dl.dropbox.com/u/3098363/bgmochy2%20-%20orlowski_go_vegan%2017127783.tmg (Mochy 2.4 - Jurgen 4.2)
4th http://dl.dropbox.com/u/3098363/orlowski_go_vegan%20-%20bgmochy2%2017129196.tmg (Mochy 3.5 - Jurgen 2.8)

Position from 1st WSOB HEADS-UP CHAMPIONSHIP - 09

2011-02-11T09:29:00.001+09:00

is orlowski_go_vegan

score: 0
pip: 84

11 point match

pip: 73
score: 0

is bgmochy2

XGID=--bCCDCB------------cbbcc-:1:-1:1:31:0:0:0:11:10

to play 31

Rollout¹

7/6 7/4

eq: +0.839

Player:
Opponent:

90.62% (G:5.20% B:0.10%)
9.38% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)

Conf: ± 0.003 (+0.836...+0.842)
Duration: 41.9 seconds

* 2.

Rollout²

5/1

eq: +0.817 (-0.021)

Player:
Opponent:

89.68% (G:5.57% B:0.08%)
10.32% (G:0.15% B:0.00%)

Conf: ± 0.004 (+0.813...+0.821)
Duration: 44.5 seconds

¹ Truncated at 11 moves using 3 ply.
650 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 9584
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

² Truncated at 11 moves using 3 ply.
649 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 9584
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

This is a tiny error but I can't overlook this mistake because it may arise very frequently.
My rule of thumb here is "When your opponent has a five point board or stronger, play safe (clear from the back). When your opponent has a four point board or weaker, keep contact (keep your prime)"

The reason of this rule is pretty simple. When your opponent has a five point board or bigger, you are usually comfortablly up in the race and being hit is fatal, so you should play safe by clearing from the back.
On the other hand , when your opponent has a four point board or weaker, the race is closer and being hit isn't fatal anymore so that you want to keep contact and force him crunch more.

is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 77

11 point match

pip: 73
score: 0

is Player 1

XGID=--bCCDCB-------------cccd-:1:-1:1:31:0:0:0:11:10

to play 31

Rollout¹

5/1

eq: +0.826

Player:
Opponent:

89.75% (G:6.27% B:0.06%)
10.25% (G:0.13% B:0.00%)

Conf: ± 0.004 (+0.822...+0.830)
Duration: 29.8 seconds

Rollout¹

7/6 7/4

eq: +0.804 (-0.022)

Player:
Opponent:

89.15% (G:5.18% B:0.07%)
10.85% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)

Conf: ± 0.003 (+0.801...+0.807)
Duration: 24.2 seconds

¹ Truncated at 11 moves using 3 ply.
658 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 44
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

So how can I misplay this? I don't know - I wasn't confident enough with my rule and managed to find the reason not to play this.

These positions are taken from 1st WSOB HEADS-UP CHAMPIONSHIP - Mochy vs Jurgen Orlowski.
You can download the match from URL below. The result of the match was L-W-W-W from my point of view.
1st http://dl.dropbox.com/u/3098363/orlowski_go_vegan%20-%20bgmochy2%2017047782.mat (Mochy 3.8 - Jurgen 4.3)
2nd http://dl.dropbox.com/u/3098363/bgmochy2%20-%20orlowski_go_vegan%2017049279.mat (Mochy 2.8 - Jurgen 2.7)
3rd http://dl.dropbox.com/u/3098363/bgmochy2%20-%20orlowski_go_vegan%2017127783.tmg (Mochy 2.4 - Jurgen 4.2)
4th http://dl.dropbox.com/u/3098363/orlowski_go_vegan%20-%20bgmochy2%2017129196.tmg (Mochy 3.5 - Jurgen 2.8)

Position from 1st WSOB HEADS-UP CHAMPIONSHIP - 08

2011-02-11T09:00:00.002+09:00

Match 4 Game 1

is orlowski_go_vegan

score: 0
pip: 138

11 point match

pip: 117
score: 0

is bgmochy2

XGID=--bB--D-CCA-bB---bbcc-a---:1:-1:1:33:0:0:0:11:10

to play 33

Rollout¹

13/10(2) 9/3

eq: +0.552

Player:
Opponent:

78.66% (G:5.74% B:0.16%)
21.34% (G:1.58% B:0.06%)

Conf: ± 0.008 (+0.544...+0.560)
Duration: 3 minutes 22 seconds

* 2.

Rollout¹

13/7(2)

eq: +0.491 (-0.061)

Player:
Opponent:

76.13% (G:6.94% B:0.25%)
23.87% (G:2.43% B:0.08%)

Conf: ± 0.009 (+0.482...+0.500)
Duration: 3 minutes 16 seconds

4 ply

8/5(3) 6/3

eq: +0.394 (-0.157)

Player:
Opponent:

71.56% (G:9.19% B:0.33%)
28.44% (G:3.40% B:0.10%)

¹ Truncated at 11 moves using 3 ply.
326 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 9584
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

In this type of the game, giving your opponent an unnecessaary shot is the last thing to do.
I have a safe play with almost same numbers of builders for four and five point.
Actually seven point may not be a big asset since I may have a problem for clearing it in the future.

These positions are taken from 1st WSOB HEADS-UP CHAMPIONSHIP - Mochy vs Jurgen Orlowski.
You can download the match from URL below. The result of the match was L-W-W-W from my point of view.
1st http://dl.dropbox.com/u/3098363/orlowski_go_vegan%20-%20bgmochy2%2017047782.mat (Mochy 3.8 - Jurgen 4.3)
2nd http://dl.dropbox.com/u/3098363/bgmochy2%20-%20orlowski_go_vegan%2017049279.mat (Mochy 2.8 - Jurgen 2.7)
3rd http://dl.dropbox.com/u/3098363/bgmochy2%20-%20orlowski_go_vegan%2017127783.tmg (Mochy 2.4 - Jurgen 4.2)
4th http://dl.dropbox.com/u/3098363/orlowski_go_vegan%20-%20bgmochy2%2017129196.tmg (Mochy 3.5 - Jurgen 2.8)

Match file of PlayWSOB HEADS-UP CHAMPIONSHIP

2011-02-07T02:37:00.002+09:00

Here are match flies of 3rd and 4th match.

Mochy vs Juergen Orlowski

http://dl.dropbox.com/u/3098363/bgmochy2%20-%20orlowski_go_vegan%2017127783.tmg
http://dl.dropbox.com/u/3098363/orlowski_go_vegan%20-%20bgmochy2%2017129196.tmg

I didn't analyze them yet but had a lot of interesting cube actions.

Very rare position

2011-02-03T16:22:00.001+09:00

is eXtremeGammon

score: 0
pip: 97

11 point match

pip: 56
score: 0

is Player 1

XGID=-CEEa-------b-B-a--bbbbba-:1:1:1:53:0:0:0:11:10

to play 53

Rollout¹

14/11 14/9

eq: -0.075

Player:
Opponent:

40.89% (G:2.01% B:0.01%)
59.11% (G:13.15% B:0.39%)

Conf: ± 0.003 (-0.078...-0.072)
Duration: 51 minutes 31 seconds

* 2.

Rollout¹

14/6

eq: -0.121 (-0.045)

Player:
Opponent:

42.45% (G:2.09% B:0.02%)
57.55% (G:12.93% B:0.39%)

Conf: ± 0.004 (-0.125...-0.117)
Duration: 47 minutes 37 seconds

¹ 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 9584
Moves and cube decisions: 4 ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

This is one of the very rare positions that one play wins most plain games and gammons while lose least gammons but still be the second best.

The key here is a cube action after the survival. If Brown missed a first shot, Yello will have a very strong double with the best play. A cube action after the second best won't be as strong as the first one. That distinguish the best from the second.

6x from the bar

2011-02-03T13:37:00.004+09:00

6X from the bar is always my theme in backgammon.

I will re-visit this position later when I have time. What I would like to study here is that different placement of Brown's back checker changes the right play.

What if Brown has blots on 22p and 24p? 21p and 24p? anchored on 20p?

is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 156

Money session
Jacoby Beaver

pip: 170
score: 0

is Player 1

XGID=---a-aD-D---dE---d-e----AA:0:0:1:64:0:0:3:0:10

to play 64

XG Roller+

Bar/21 13/7

eq: -0.202

Player:
Opponent:

45.21% (G:11.04% B:0.41%)
54.79% (G:14.51% B:0.72%)

XG Roller+

Bar/21 8/2

eq: -0.254 (-0.052)

Player:
Opponent:

43.71% (G:9.84% B:0.34%)
56.29% (G:14.21% B:0.63%)

XG Roller+

Bar/15

eq: -0.255 (-0.053)

Player:
Opponent:

44.30% (G:8.42% B:0.31%)
55.70% (G:13.88% B:0.54%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

Position from 1st WSOB HEADS-UP CHAMPIONSHIP - 07

2011-02-02T14:56:00.001+09:00

Match 2 Game 7

I don't understand why the best play is the best. I hope somebody help me.

is orlowski_go_vegan

score: 6
pip: 145

11 point match

pip: 152
score: 8

is bgmochy2

XGID=-a-aB-D-C---bD-a-cbd--B-a-:0:0:1:62:8:6:0:11:10

to play 62

Rollout¹

22/16 13/11

eq: +0.026

Player:
Opponent:

54.20% (G:16.17% B:1.26%)
45.80% (G:15.84% B:0.62%)

Conf: ± 0.010 (+0.016...+0.036)
Duration: 6 minutes 05 seconds

Rollout²

13/5

eq: +0.002 (-0.024)

Player:
Opponent:

51.37% (G:15.88% B:0.81%)
48.63% (G:11.92% B:0.44%)

Conf: ± 0.010 (-0.008...+0.012)
Duration: 6 minutes 04 seconds

* 3.

Rollout³

22/14

eq: -0.027 (-0.053)

Player:
Opponent:

53.22% (G:14.54% B:0.98%)
46.78% (G:15.96% B:0.42%)

Conf: ± 0.014 (-0.041...-0.013)
Duration: 3 minutes 54 seconds

¹ Truncated at 11 moves using 3 ply.
528 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 9584
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

² Truncated at 11 moves using 3 ply.
527 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 9584
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

³ Truncated at 11 moves using 3 ply.
326 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 9584
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

If a white checker on 10 point is not exist, I will definitely play 13/11 as it produces a nice builder linked with 16p and 13p. Because of that checker, I was worried about being hit by ace and played 16/14, but how painful that ace shot can be? Yes, it can be painful with 11, 14, and 16 but not with 12, 13 and 15. You will actually gain by staying on 16p if white rolls 12 or 13. So ace shot is not really painful and the merit of 13/11 stands.

Falafel told me 13/11 is "free shot" so I checked with XG. I compared two positions. First one is running to 14, the other one is stopped at 16 but not playing other deuce(illegal play). An equity after each play was about same. I wouldn't gain or lose by playing 16/14 with deuce. It helps me understanding position a lot better. 13/11 is acutally a free shot.

These positions are taken from 1st WSOB HEADS-UP CHAMPIONSHIP - Mochy vs Jurgen Orlowski.
You can download the match from URL below.

1st match Jurgen beats Mochy (PR Mochy 3.7 - Jurgen 4.0)
http://dl.dropbox.com/u/3098363/orlowski_go_vegan%20-%20bgmochy2%2017047782.mat

2nd match Mochy beats Jurgen (PR Mochy 2.8 - Jurgen 2.7)
http://dl.dropbox.com/u/3098363/bgmochy2%20-%20orlowski_go_vegan%2017049279.mat

Position from 1st WSOB HEADS-UP CHAMPIONSHIP - 06

2011-02-02T14:47:00.002+09:00

I call this kind of position "two against one" because I have two checkers trapped behind and he has one checker on the bar.

These are almost always take, and usually boarder line initial double.
As trailing 4-6/11p, Double is mandatory and still take.

is orlowski_go_vegan

score: 6
pip: 112

11 point match

pip: 106
score: 4

is bgmochy2

XGID=a-BBBBC-B--a-----bbccbBa--:1:1:1:00:4:6:0:11:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller+
Player Winning Chances:	57.52% (G: 23.28% B: 0.47%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	42.48% (G: 8.20% B: 0.30%)

Cubeless Equities
No Redouble:	+0.327
Redouble:	+0.910

Cubeful Equities
No Redouble:	+0.602 (-0.209)
*Redouble/Take:	+0.811
Redouble/Drop:	+1.000 (+0.189)

Best Cube action: Redouble / Take

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

These positions are taken from 1st WSOB HEADS-UP CHAMPIONSHIP - Mochy vs Jurgen Orlowski.
You can download the match from URL below.

1st match Jurgen beats Mochy (PR Mochy 3.7 - Jurgen 4.0)
http://dl.dropbox.com/u/3098363/orlowski_go_vegan%20-%20bgmochy2%2017047782.mat

2nd match Mochy beats Jurgen (PR Mochy 2.8 - Jurgen 2.7)
http://dl.dropbox.com/u/3098363/bgmochy2%20-%20orlowski_go_vegan%2017049279.mat

Position from 1st WSOB HEADS-UP CHAMPIONSHIP - 05

2011-02-02T14:35:00.002+09:00

Match 2 Game 6

is orlowski_go_vegan

score: 6
pip: 153

11 point match

pip: 160
score: 4

is bgmochy2

XGID=-a--A-D-D--adD--ac-e----B-:0:0:1:52:4:6:0:11:10

to play 52

Rollout¹

13/11* 11/6

eq: +0.028

Player:
Opponent:

48.14% (G:13.89% B:0.70%)
51.86% (G:14.50% B:0.80%)

Conf: ± 0.010 (+0.018...+0.038)
Duration: 4 minutes 29 seconds

Rollout²

13/8 13/11*

eq: -0.004 (-0.032)

Player:
Opponent:

47.57% (G:13.84% B:0.74%)
52.43% (G:15.56% B:1.10%)

Conf: ± 0.011 (-0.015...+0.007)
Duration: 4 minutes 28 seconds

* 3.

Rollout²

13/8 6/4

eq: -0.033 (-0.062)

Player:
Opponent:

46.61% (G:12.44% B:0.45%)
53.39% (G:13.22% B:0.68%)

Conf: ± 0.011 (-0.044...-0.022)
Duration: 4 minutes 35 seconds

¹ Truncated at 11 moves using 3 ply.
326 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 9584
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

² Truncated at 11 moves using 3 ply.
325 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 9584
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

I should have hit with 2 to stop him from making a point. I was satisfied with having a four point, but then he will do the same (or even better). As my backmen are two, I had to be more greedy.

These positions are taken from 1st WSOB HEADS-UP CHAMPIONSHIP - Mochy vs Jurgen Orlowski.
You can download the match if you like.

1st match Jurgen beats Mochy (PR Mochy 3.7 - Jurgen 4.0)http://dl.dropbox.com/u/3098363/orlowski_go_vegan%20-%20bgmochy2%2017047782.mat
2nd match Mochy beats Jurgen (PR Mochy 2.8 - Jurgen 2.7)http://dl.dropbox.com/u/3098363/bgmochy2%20-%20orlowski_go_vegan%2017049279.mat

Position from 1st WSOB HEADS-UP CHAMPIONSHIP - 04

2011-01-31T13:44:00.002+09:00

Match 2 game 4

is orlowski_go_vegan

score: 2
pip: 112

11 point match

pip: 162
score: 2

is bgmochy2

XGID=---aABB-BAAA-B---ccecBA---:0:0:1:65:2:2:0:11:10

to play 65

* 1.

3 ply

22/16 9/4

eq: -0.098

Player:
Opponent:

49.46% (G:5.87% B:0.25%)
50.54% (G:13.75% B:0.31%)

3 ply

10/4 8/3*

eq: -0.290 (-0.192)

Player:
Opponent:

46.75% (G:8.58% B:0.37%)
53.25% (G:25.75% B:1.30%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

Underlying theme is same as previous post.
You have many builders in outfield not innerfield, so it is more logical for building from outside.

These positions are taken from 1st WSOB HEADS-UP CHAMPIONSHIP - Mochy vs Jurgen Orlowski.
You can download the match if you like.

1st match Jurgen beats Mochy (PR Mochy 3.7 - Jurgen 4.0)
http://dl.dropbox.com/u/3098363/orlowski_go_vegan%20-%20bgmochy2%2017047782.mat
2nd match Mochy beats Jurgen (PR Mochy 2.8 - Jurgen 2.7)
http://dl.dropbox.com/u/3098363/bgmochy2%20-%20orlowski_go_vegan%2017049279.mat

Position from 1st WSOB HEADS-UP CHAMPIONSHIP - 03

2011-01-31T13:27:00.001+09:00

Position from 1st WSOB HEADS-UP CHAMPIONSHIP

1st match Jurgen beats Mochy (PR Mochy 3.7 - Jurgen 4.0)
http://dl.dropbox.com/u/3098363/orlowski_go_vegan%20-%20bgmochy2%2017047782.mat

2nd match Mochy beats Jurgen (PR Mochy 2.8 - Jurgen 2.7)
http://dl.dropbox.com/u/3098363/bgmochy2%20-%20orlowski_go_vegan%2017049279.mat

Match 2 Game 4

is orlowski_go_vegan

score: 2
pip: 111

11 point match

pip: 175
score: 2

is bgmochy2

XGID=----aBC-B-A--C-A-ccecB---A:0:0:1:32:2:2:0:11:10

to play 32

Rollout¹

Bar/23 13/10

eq: -0.394

Player:
Opponent:

43.57% (G:6.32% B:0.23%)
56.43% (G:25.75% B:0.68%)

Conf: ± 0.021 (-0.415...-0.373)
Duration: 3 minutes 49 seconds

* 2.

Rollout²

Bar/22 6/4*

eq: -0.463 (-0.069)

Player:
Opponent:

43.91% (G:6.59% B:0.23%)
56.09% (G:32.09% B:1.37%)

Conf: ± 0.022 (-0.485...-0.441)
Duration: 3 minutes 41 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

Japanese expert player "Tsuyoshi Minakami" (aka minack) once told me that "Making a point is usually better than hitting loose". This small tips is quite handy and it it true here.
I don't have enough amunition to completing blitz but I have many snipers hanging around on outfield.
It is very thematic to building from outside, not inside.
One downside is that it gives him a free roll but it is not quite a problem as I own 21p anchor.

Position from 1st WSOB HEADS-UP CHAMPIONSHIP - 02

2011-01-31T13:20:00.001+09:00

Position from 1st WSOB HEADS-UP CHAMPIONSHIP

1st match Jurgen beats Mochy (PR Mochy 3.7 - Jurgen 4.0)
http://dl.dropbox.com/u/3098363/orlowski_go_vegan%20-%20bgmochy2%2017047782.mat
2nd match Mochy beats Jurgen (PR Mochy 2.8 - Jurgen 2.7)
http://dl.dropbox.com/u/3098363/bgmochy2%20-%20orlowski_go_vegan%2017049279.mat

Match 2 Game 3

is orlowski_go_vegan

score: 2
pip: 131

11 point match

pip: 116
score: 0

is bgmochy2

XGID=---BBbE-B---bB-B-abeb-a---:1:-1:1:53:0:2:0:11:10

to play 53

* 1.

4 ply

13/10 13/8

eq: +0.155

Player:
Opponent:

62.55% (G:4.82% B:0.18%)
37.45% (G:4.48% B:0.12%)

4 ply

13/8 6/3

eq: +0.060 (-0.095)

Player:
Opponent:

58.56% (G:6.16% B:0.22%)
41.44% (G:6.76% B:0.17%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

Here I made a good play and I am kind a proud of it. :)
My outfield is completly stripped and it is time to pay. Brown has a blot on three point so he needs to roll some perfecta.

Position from 1st WSOB HEADS-UP CHAMPIONSHIP - 01

2011-01-31T13:02:00.002+09:00

I am going to post some interesting position from my match against Jurgen Orlowski in 1st WSOB HEADS-UP CHAMPIONSHIP.

2nd match game3

is orlowski_go_vegan

score: 2
pip: 140

11 point match

pip: 121
score: 0

is bgmochy2

XGID=-a-BBaE-A---bC-B-bbeb-----:1:-1:1:32:0:2:0:11:10

to play 32

Rollout¹

8/5* 5/3

eq: +0.361

Player:
Opponent:

65.10% (G:20.96% B:0.61%)
34.90% (G:7.73% B:0.35%)

Conf: ± 0.010 (+0.351...+0.371)
Duration: 3 minutes 19 seconds

* 2.

Rollout²

13/8

eq: +0.269 (-0.092)

Player:
Opponent:

64.46% (G:13.66% B:0.39%)
35.54% (G:7.12% B:0.29%)

Conf: ± 0.009 (+0.260...+0.278)
Duration: 3 minutes 51 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

This is my first serious mistake. I didn't hit because I was afraid of him having anchor on my acepoint.

Now I see why hitting is better.

1, It wins more gammon.

This is the easiest reason I can find (I knew it over the board).

Especially he fans, I have 10 checkers in the zone aiming a lone checker on ace point.

Also he might enter awkwardly (23,24,25,26,35,56) so that I can cotinue my blitzing.

2, Even if he manages to make an anchor on acepoint, is it really worse for me?

I thought being anchord on acepoint is much worse than on five point, but it is actually unclear. It is true that he will have more contact in acepoint games in bear off and later bear in phaze, but atleast I have easier time in early bearin phaze (clearing 15 point and mid point).

If 2 is not clear, then 1 becomes a good reason to choose pick-and-pass play.

PlayWSOB Heads up championship Mochy vs Jurgen Orlowski 1st and 2nd match

2011-01-31T01:23:00.001+09:00

1st match Jurgen beats Mochy (PR Mochy 3.7 - Jurgen 4.0)
http://dl.dropbox.com/u/3098363/orlowski_go_vegan%20-%20bgmochy2%2017047782.mat

2nd match Mochy beats Jurgen (PR Mochy 1.4 - Jurgen 1.4)
http://dl.dropbox.com/u/3098363/bgmochy2%20-%20orlowski_go_vegan%2017049279.mat

Exhibition match Mochy vs Falafel at SafeHarborGames

2011-01-30T11:47:00.000+09:00

Here is a match file for Mochy vs Falafel.

Mochy played 2.8 - Falafel Played 1.9 in PR (Perfomance Rating in eXtreme Gammon)

http://dl.dropbox.com/u/3098363/mochy_falafel_TR10_201101300143_00.xg
http://dl.dropbox.com/u/3098363/mochy_falafel_TR10_201101300143_00.mat

It was a great match. Thank you falafel!

It doesn't matter

2010-12-18T15:34:00.000+09:00

is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 7

1 point match

pip: 17
score: 0

is Player 1

XGID=--AAC------------------bc-:0:0:1:51:0:0:0:1:10

to play 51

XG Roller+

4/0ff 2/1

eq: -0.157

Player:
Opponent:

42.14% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
57.86% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)

XG Roller+

4/3 4/0ff

eq: -0.234 (-0.077)

Player:
Opponent:

38.29% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
61.71% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

I was in auto pilot and my plane was fired down!

+500

2010-12-18T00:13:00.001+09:00

is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 127

Money session
Jacoby Beaver

pip: 134
score: 0

is Player 1

XGID=-bB-BBB-BA--cB-----bbbbbAA:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances:	70.58% (G: 40.38% B: 2.57%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	29.42% (G: 7.85% B: 0.50%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	72.61% (G: 44.75% B: 2.34%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	27.39% (G: 7.51% B: 0.48%)

Cubeless Equities
No Double:	+0.412
Double:	+1.686

Cubeful Equities
No Double:	+0.855 (-0.145)
Double/Take:	+1.485 (+0.485)
Double/Drop:	+1.000

Best Cube action: Double / Drop

Rollout details
1300 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 9584 Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

Confidence No Double:	± 0.011 (+0.844...+0.866)
Confidence Double:	± 0.026 (+1.459...+1.511)

Double Decision confidence:	100.0%
Take Decision confidence:	100.0%

Duration: 14 minutes 02 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

I made a nearly quintuple blunder here!I thought if I could have manage to make an anchor on acepoint, I would have a decent game. However, I had to think about the other side of the story. If I couldn't make an anchor, almost sure I would lose gammon.Also, anchoring doesn't mean I would be a favorite. I would be still trapped two (or even three) checkers behind five prime.

is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 127

Money session
Jacoby Beaver

pip: 136
score: 0

is Player 1

XGID=-b-BBBB-BA--cB-----bbbbbAA:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances:	66.44% (G: 37.44% B: 1.99%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	33.56% (G: 8.70% B: 0.54%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	67.39% (G: 39.94% B: 2.08%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	32.61% (G: 8.19% B: 0.48%)

Cubeless Equities
No Double:	+0.329
Double:	+1.362

Cubeful Equities
No Double:	+0.820 (-0.180)
Double/Take:	+1.124 (+0.124)
Double/Drop:	+1.000

Best Cube action: Double / Drop

Rollout details
1298 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 9584 Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

Confidence No Double:	± 0.019 (+0.801...+0.838)
Confidence Double:	± 0.030 (+1.094...+1.153)

Double Decision confidence:	100.0%
Take Decision confidence:	100.0%

Duration: 18 minutes 16 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

I shifted from two point to three point of my inner board. It is still a clear pass.

is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 125

Money session
Jacoby Beaver

pip: 133
score: 0

is Player 1

XGID=-bB-BBB-BA--cB-----bbbbAbA:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances:	63.35% (G: 37.32% B: 1.58%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	36.65% (G: 10.76% B: 0.61%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	64.36% (G: 39.60% B: 1.46%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	35.64% (G: 10.46% B: 0.65%)

Cubeless Equities
No Double:	+0.267
Double:	+1.173

Cubeful Equities
No Double:	+0.705 (-0.179)
Double/Take:	+0.885
Double/Drop:	+1.000 (+0.115)

Best Cube action: Double / Take

Rollout details
973 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 9584 Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

Confidence No Double:	± 0.027 (+0.679...+0.732)
Confidence Double:	± 0.035 (+0.850...+0.919)

Double Decision confidence:	100.0%
Take Decision confidence:	100.0%

Duration: 10 minutes 32 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

Shifting from acepoint open to deucepoint make it clear take though.

Backgammon is an interesting game

2010-09-26T05:53:00.001+09:00

I have never been board of playing BG. It has consistently given me new interesting positions, surpriseness and awareness.

is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 70

Money session
Jacoby Beaver

pip: 86
score: 0

is Player 1

XGID=-ABBBBCB---------bbbbbbabA:1:1:1:22:0:0:3:0:10

to play 22

XG Roller+

Bar/23* 6/4 3/1(2)

eq: -0.512

Player:
Opponent:

22.17% (G:4.06% B:0.06%)
77.83% (G:6.51% B:0.14%)

XG Roller+

Bar/23* 7/5 7/3

eq: -0.643 (-0.131)

Player:
Opponent:

19.25% (G:2.82% B:0.14%)
80.75% (G:11.50% B:0.25%)

XG Roller+

Bar/23* 7/5(2) 6/4

eq: -0.655 (-0.142)

Player:
Opponent:

18.61% (G:2.56% B:0.12%)
81.39% (G:10.93% B:0.23%)

3 ply

Bar/23* 7/5 3/1(2)

eq: -0.691 (-0.179)

Player:
Opponent:

16.17% (G:2.66% B:0.07%)
83.83% (G:9.23% B:0.17%)

3 ply

Bar/23* 5/3 5/1

eq: -0.692 (-0.180)

Player:
Opponent:

15.18% (G:1.77% B:0.03%)
84.82% (G:6.28% B:0.12%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

31 32 34 is key numbers. It would be even game after those rolls.It is much better than breaking bar point and hoping that something (unrealistic) good will happen.